Worldwide Epidemiology of Atrial Fibrillation: A Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study
Background—The global burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) is unknown.
Methods and Results—We systematically reviewed population-based studies of AF published 1980-2010, from the 21 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions to estimate global/regional prevalence, incidence, as well as morbidity and mortality related to AF (DisModMR software). Of 377 potential studies identified, 184 met pre-specified eligibility criteria. The estimated number of individuals with AF globally in 2010 was 33∙5 million [(20∙9 million males (UI, 19∙5-22∙2 million) and 12∙6 million females (UI, 12∙0-13∙7 million)]. Burden associated with AF, measured as disability adjusted life-years (DALYs), increased by 18∙8% (UI, 15∙8-19∙3) in males and 18∙9% (UI, 15∙8-23∙5) in females, from 1990 to 2010. In 1990, the estimated age-adjusted prevalence rates of AF (per 100,000 population) were 569∙5 in males [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 532∙8-612∙7] and 359∙9 in females (UI, 334∙7-392∙6); the estimated age-adjusted incidence rates were 60∙7/100,000 person-years in males (UI, 49∙2-78∙5) and 43∙8 in females (UI, 35∙9-55∙0). In 2010 the prevalence rate increased to 596∙2 (UI, 558∙4-636∙7) in males and 373∙1 (UI, 347∙9-402∙2) in females; incidence rate increased to 77∙5 (UI, 65∙2-95∙4) in males and 59∙5 (UI, 49∙9-74∙9) in females. Mortality associated with AF was higher in females, and increased by 2-fold (UI, 2∙0-2∙2) and 1∙9-fold (UI, 1∙8-2∙0) in males and females, respectively, from 1990 to 2010.
Conclusions—These findings provide evidence of progressive increases in overall burden, incidence, prevalence and AF-associated mortality between 1990-2010. Systematic, global surveillance of AF is required to better direct prevention and treatment strategies.
- Received July 22, 2013.
- Revision received September 30, 2013.
- Accepted November 12, 2013.