Abstract 17692: The Development of a Risk Score for Incident Atrial Fibrillation in Japanese General Population Cohorts: a Collaborative Meta-analysis
Purpose: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a strong risk factor for mortality and morbidity. Nevertheless, few risk scores exist for incident AF that reflect nationwide. We conducted a meta-analysis to develop and validate a risk score for incident AF risk score in the Japanese general population.
Methods: We analyzed data from 3 population-based cohort studies possibility: the Suita Study (n=5,796), the Circulatory Risk in Communities Study (CIRCS, n=11,906), and the Hisayama Study (n=2119). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for incident AF adjusted for traditional risk factors in each cohort. We performed meta-analyses using a random-effects model with inverse variance weighting to make a risk score for incident AF. We applied the risk score to the Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study (IPHS, n=66,326), which was based on health check-up data.
Results: In 280,832 person-years of follow-up for the 3 cohorts, 551 incident AF events occurred (1.96 cases/1000 person-years). Age, sex, overweight (including obesity), systolic hypertension, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and drinking (quit and excessive drinking) were associated with incident AF. The baseline risk scores for the 3 cohorts’ subjects were as following points: 0, 3, 6, and 9 for participants in their 40s, 50s, 60s, and 70s, 3 for male, 2 for quit drinking, 2 for drinking 4-6 alcohol units/day, 3 for drinking ≥6 alcohol units/day, 2 for systolic hypertension, 2 for overweight, and 3 for IHD. The predicted 10-year risk of AF was similar to the observed risks; e.g., the subjects who scored 0, 5-6, and 15-6 points in the cohort studies had a 0.3%, 1.7%, and 8.5% observed probability of developing AF in 10 years, respectively. In the IPHS, which followed-up 381,258 person-years, 636 incident AF events were observed (1.67 cases/1000 person-years); individuals scoring of 0, 5-6, and 15-6 points had 0.1%, 0.7%, and 5.7% probability, respectively. For the subjects who attended annual health check-ups, the risk score was highly correlated with the observed incident AF (P<0.001), though the incident AF was lower than that from the 3 cohort studies.
Conclusion: We developed a risk score that predicts the 10-year incident AF risk in Japanese using traditional risk factors.
Author Disclosures: Y. Kokubo: None. H. Imano: None. J. Hata: None. N. Murakoshi: None. Y. Aizawa: None. H. Iso: None. T. Ninomiya: None. F. Nakamura: None. Y. Miyamoto: None. T. Okamura: None. H. Tomita: None. K. Okumura: None.
- © 2016 by American Heart Association, Inc.