Abstract 13894: Prediction of Mode of Death by Model of End-Stage Liver Disease Excluding INR (MELD-XI) Scoring System in Patients Admitted for Acute Decompensated Heart Failure With Preserved and Reduced Ejection Fraction; a Comparison With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Fibrosis Score
Backgrounds: Cardiohepatic interactions have been a focus of attention among heart failure. A model of end-stage liver disease excluding INR (MELD-XI), a robust scoring system of liver dysfunction, has been shown to provide prognostic information in heart failure patients (pts). Furthermore, it was reported that nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. There is a difference in mode of death (cardiac vs non-cardiac death) between heart failure with preserved (HFpEF) and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). We sought to investigate the prognostic significance of MELD-XI and NAFLD in the prediction of mode of death in pts admitted for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF), relating to HFpEF and HFrEF.
Methods and Results: We studied 303 consecutive ADHF pts (HFrEF[LVEF<50%]; n=163, HFpEF[LVEF≥50%];n=140). MELD-XI score was calculated by the formula: 5.11х ln(bilirubin)+11.79х ln(creatinine)+9.44. NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) was obtained by the formula: -1.675 + 0.037 х age + 0.094 х BMI + 1.13 х hyperglycemia or diabetes (yes = 1, no = 0) + 0.99 х AST/ALT - 0.013 х platelet ( х 109/L) - 0.66 х albumin. During a follow-up period of 5.1±4.3 yrs, 65 pts had cardiac death and 56 pts had non-cardiac death. At multivariate Cox analysis, MELD-XI score, but not NFS, was significantly associated with cardiac death independently of prior heart failure hospitalization, BMI, systolic blood pressure and serum sodium level, while neither MELD-XI score nor NFS showed the association with non-cardiac death. MELD-XI of 13 was a fair discriminator for cardiac death (AUC 0.737[0.670-0.805]). In both groups with HFrEF and HFpEF, pts with higher MELD-XI score had a significantly higher risk of cardiac death than those with lower MELD-XI score.
Conclusion: A MELD-XI scoring system might predict cardiac death but not non-cardiac death in ADHF pts, regardless of HFrEF or HFpEF, although NAFLD fibrosis score did not.
Author Disclosures: T. Yamada: None. T. Morita: None. Y. Furukawa: None. S. Tamaki: None. Y. Iwasaki: None. M. Kawasaki: None. A. Kikuchi: None. T. Kondo: None. T. Ozaki: None. M. Seo: None. Y. Sato: None. I. Ikeda: None. E. Fukuhara: None. M. Abe: None. J. Nakamura: None. M. Fukunami: None.
- © 2016 by American Heart Association, Inc.