Abstract 16961: Time-dependent Markers of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Severity and Change are Associated With Increased Risk of Mortality in the General Heart Failure Population: A National Study of 50,114 Patients From the United Kingdom
Purpose: Heart failure (HF) carries poor prognosis which changes over time. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is common in HF and increases risk of mortality but how COPD severity and change influences HF prognosis is unknown. We hypothesised that in the HF general population, comorbidity stratification by increasing severity and longitudinal change would be associated with increased mortality.
Methods: We used a case-control study nested within the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink database (12-year time-period to 2014), of newly diagnosed HF patients aged over 40 years. Using risk set sampling, four controls were matched to cases on calendar and follow-up time. Routinely collected clinical measures of severity and change for COPD were (i) forced expiration volume in 1 second (FEV1) stages, defined by Global Initiatives for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) guidelines and (ii) prescribed medications in two time-windows covering 1-year prior to the match date. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate risk ratios (RR) for all-cause mortality adjusted for known confounders.
Results: Of the 50,114 HF sample, 5,848 (11.7%) had COPD and of these 62% died during follow-up compared to 52% of patients without COPD. COPD comorbidity risk associated with mortality stratified by GOLD stages was as follows: stage 1; adjusted RR 1.73 (95% CI 1.50-1.99) to stage 4; 3.14 (2.65, 3.73). Estimates for COPD FEV1 change compared to no COPD were: GOLD stage same or better; 2.15 (1.97, 2.34) and GOLD stage worse; 2.70 (2.30, 3.17). The mortality estimates for medications severity were: inhalers only 1.13 (1.07,1.19), oral steroids; 1.83 (1.69,1.97) and oxygen; 2.94 (2.47, 3.51). The estimates for medications change were: no new steroids or oxygen; 1.22, (1.16, 1.28), new steroids but not oxygen; 1.84, (1.67,1.28) and new on oxygen; 3.41, (2.71,4.29).
Conclusions: COPD is an important and common comorbidity in HF. Our results show that worse COPD severity and recent change based on routinely collected clinical data was associated with increased mortality and provides key prognostic information for clinical assessment in practice.
Author Disclosures: C.A. Rushton: None. L. Riley: None. D.K. Satchithananda: None. P.W. Jones: None. U.T. Kadam: None.
- © 2015 by American Heart Association, Inc.