Abstract 12264: A Risk Score for the Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation in the Japanese Community: The Suita Study
Introduction: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common chronic arrhythmia and is a strong risk factor for all-cause mortality and stroke. However, there is no risk score for incident AF in non-Westerners.
Aim: We aimed to develop and validate a risk score for AF incidence in a Japanese general population.
Methods: A total of 6,906 participants (30-84 years old) initially free of AF were prospectively followed up for incident AF in the Suita Study. Standard 12-lead ECGs were obtained from all subjects in the supine position. Each record was coded independently by 2 well-trained physicians. Participants were diagnosed with AF if AF or atrial flutter was present on ECGs obtained during a biannual routine health examination or if AF was indicated as a present illness by either annual questionnaires responses or participants' medical records during follow-up. Cox proportional hazard ratios were analyzed after adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors at baseline. The model discrimination was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.
Results: In 88,663 person-years of follow-up, 253 incident AF events occurred. Age, sex, body mass index, valvular disease and/or heart murmur, systolic blood pressure, ischemic heart disease, smoking, and excessive drinking were associated with incident AF (C-statistic 0.73; 95% confidence intervals, 0.70-0.75). The risk scores for participants in their 30s, 40s, 50s, 60s, and 70s, sex (women), smoking 1~19 and ≥20 cigarettes/day, excessive drinking (4 units/day or more of alcohol), systolic prehypertension with overweight or obesity, systolic hypertension with normal weight/overweight or obesity, ischemic heart disease, and valvular disease and/or heart murmur were -6, 0, 6, 18, 27, -6, 2, 5, 5, 6, 5, 10, 7, and 12, respectively. Individuals scoring ≤19 and ≥40 points, for example, had ≤3.5% and ≥8.5% predicted probability of developing AF in 10 years, respectively.
Conclusions: We developed a risk score to predict 10-year incident AF risk using variables that are easily available in healthy examination in Japan. This risk score can be useful for a person with higher risk of AF in order to consult a doctor and encourage lifestyle improvements before onset of AF.
Author Disclosures: Y. Kokubo: None. M. Watanabe: None. A. Higashiyama: None. Y.M. Nakao: None. T. Watanabe: None. M. Takegami: None. K. Kusano: None. S. Kamakura: None. Y. Miyamoto: None.
- © 2015 by American Heart Association, Inc.