Abstract 10229: Increase the Predictive Capacity of Coronary Risk With a Genetic Score
Introduction: Genes associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) and traditional cardiovascular risk factors (TCRF) present a limited individual predictive value. It is expected that the inclusion in global scores may increase the predictive ability. In genetic terms, there are no validated risk scores to predict the occurrence of cardiovascular disease or its complications.
Hypothesis: Evaluate the ability of a multifactorial genetic risk score (GRS) be able to add predictive power, for the development of CAD, to the model developed only with TCRF.
Methods: A case-control study was performed with 1321 consecutive coronary patients (mean age 53.4±8.1 years, 78.8% male) and 1148 controls selected to be similar to cases in terms of gender and age. TCRF were evaluated according to the International criteria. The genetic variants were analyzed with specific primers and the GRS was determined in the entire population, based on 29 genetic polymorphisms previously associated with atherosclerotic disease in general and, in particular, with CAD. A multiplicative model was then used based on risk multiplication (odds ratio - OR) of each genotype of the 29 studied genes. Subsequently, a multivariate analysis was done with the TCRF only or the TCRF with the GRS and a ROC curve was constructed for both situations. Pairwise comparison of the two ROC Curve was done by the DeLong test.
Results: After multivariate analysis, the GRS was found to be an independent predictor for CAD (OR=2.1; CI: 1.7-2.5; p<0.0001). The AUC increased from 0.71 to 0.74 after the inclusion of GRS to the TCRF in the multivariate analysis and this increase was highly significant (p<0.0001) (Fig.).
Conclusions: In our population, the multiplicative GRS was an independent predictor for CAD. When analyzed together with TCRF, it adds predictive value. Its usefulness, in clinical practice, may be directed to the intermediate risk group, in which a possible risk reclassification can have different therapeutic measures.
Author Disclosures: A. Pereira: None. I. Mendonca: None. S. Gomes: None. R. Rodrigues: None. M. Neto: None. A.C. Sousa: None. R. Ferreira: None. A.I. Freitas: None. S. Freitas: None. R. Palma dos Reis: None.
- © 2015 by American Heart Association, Inc.