Abstract MP42: The Potential Impact of Food Taxation and Subsidies on Cardiometabolic Mortality in The US
Peñalvo JL, Asfhin A, Rehm CD, Cudhea F, Singh G, Mozaffarian D
Tufts Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Boston MA-02111
Background: Food-specific taxes and subsidies have been proposed as a strategy for the prevention of cardiometabolic diseases (CMD). However, the potential impact of such policies on CMD-mortality in the US, and heterogeneity by age, sex, and race have not been quantified.
Aim: To estimate the number of CMD-deaths prevented by the introduction of fiscal interventions on food items related with CMD.
Methods: We conducted a Comparative Risk Assessment analysis to estimate the impact of a 10% subsidy for fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and nuts and a 10% tax on processed and unprocessed red meat on deaths due to CMD in the US. Dietary intakes in 2010 by age, sex, and race, were determined from NHANES based on two 24-h recalls. Age-specific, diet-disease relative risks, were derived from meta-analyses (2013 Global Burden of Diseases study). Age, sex, and race-stratified deaths due to CVD from 2010 were obtained from the US-NCHS. Efficacy of taxes and subsidies on dietary change were obtained from new meta-analysis of prospective studies. Monte Carlo simulations incorporated uncertainty in dietary intakes, diet-disease risks, underlying death rates, and efficacy of interventions.
Results: Based on prospective studies, subsidies produce larger changes (14% increase per 10% price change) than taxes (3% decrease per 10% price change) (p-interaction=0.012). Subsidizing the price of food items such as nuts could derive in averting almost 12000 deaths (Figure A). Combining both taxes and subsides would have the greatest impact. Due to the marked heterogeneity found on the estimations across population strata, information about age, sex, and race should be considered when proposing fiscal interventions (Figures B and C).
Conclusions: This information will be useful to quantify the effect and support evidence-based decisions on fiscal policies to reduce the burden of cardiometabolic disease in the US.
Author Disclosures: J.L. Penalvo: B. Research Grant; Significant; Bunge Fellowship. A. Ashkin: None. F. Cudhea: None. C.D. Rehm: None. G.M. Singh: None. D. Mozaffarian: None.
- © 2015 by American Heart Association, Inc.