Abstract 18435: Development and Validation of a Risk Score Predicting 5-Year Mortality after Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for Selecting Suitable Patients for Bioresorbable Stents
Introduction: It is a defendable strategy to restrict the use of bioresorbable stents to patients with a life expectancy that exceeds the stent dissolution time. However, selection tools for the broad population of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) patients are lacking.
Hypothesis: We aimed to develop and validate a risk score predicting 5-year all-cause mortality after PCI, which might help selecting suitable patients for bioresorbable stents.
Methods: A total of 19532 patients were included, who underwent PCI for any indication in our hospital during 2000 - 2012. Patients were randomly divided into a balanced training (n=13090) and validation (n=6442) cohort. Mortality data were obtained via the Civil Registry. Cox proportional hazards models with backward selection were used to identify risk factors for 5-year mortality.
Results: Median age was 63 years (IQR 54-72) and 72% were men. Five-year mortality was 12.9%. In the training set, age, body mass index <25, diabetes mellitus, renal insufficiency, prior myocardial infarction, indication for PCI, culprit left main, number of diseased vessels and cardiogenic shock appeared significant predictors of 5-year mortality, which were consequently used to construct a risk score (figure). This score displayed a good discriminative ability with c-indices of 0.76 in the training and 0.74 in the validation set.
Conclusions: Five-year mortality after PCI can be adequately predicted with help of 9 simple baseline clinical and angiographic variables. Aggregated in a risk score, these might be used to identify patients with a life expectancy that exceeds dissolution time of bioresorbable stents.
Author Disclosures: N. van Boven: None. I. Kardys: None. R.T. van Domburg: None. J. Daemen: None. V.A. Umans: None. R. van Geuns: None. E. Boersma: None.
- © 2014 by American Heart Association, Inc.