Abstract 17002: Performance of the Mortality Probability Model (MPM0) in a Contemporary Cardiac Intensive Care Unit
Introduction: The Mortality Prediction Model (MPM0) was developed to estimate the probability of hospital mortality among patients in general and surgical intensive care units (ICUs). Although this score is widely accepted, its applicability in patients with primary cardiac conditions has not been thoroughly evaluated. The aim of this study is to assess the performance of the MPM0 score in a cardiac intensive care unit (CICU).
Methods: From 2007 to 2012, data related to variables from the MPM0 (Table 1) were prospectively collected on all consecutive patients admitted due to a primary cardiac condition to the CICU of a tertiary referral center. MPM0 was applied to all patients. Two variables of the original risk score were not included in the analysis: intracranial mass effect and cirrhosis. The incidence of each variable within the score was determined. Test performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (c-statistic).
Results: A total of 6,433 patients were admitted to the CICU, of whom 5,710 (89%) had a primary cardiac diagnosis. Complete data were available for 4,641 patients, who comprise the study population. Primary cardiac diagnoses were: acute coronary syndrome (54%), arrhythmia (13%), valvular (12%), cardiomyopathy (8%), cardiac arrest (4%) and other (9%). Overall hospital mortality was 10.4%. The c-statistic for application of MPM0 to this population was 0.82 (95% CI 0.81-0.84), indicating excellent discriminatory capacity.
Conclusions: The MPM0 risk score, described originally to aid in prediction of mortality for patients admitted to medical and surgical ICUs, performed extremely well when applied to cardiac patients admitted to a large contemporary CICU.
Author Disclosures: M.E. Rodrigo: None. F.M. Asch: None. T.A. Singh: None. T. Kumar: None. D.A. Morrow: None. F. Chen: None. R. Torguson: None. J.A. Panza: None. H.A. Cooper: None.
- © 2014 by American Heart Association, Inc.