Abstract 11314: Statin and Aspirin Use in a High Risk CHD HMO Population Modeled to Prevent 4,930 Ascvd Events and Save the Health Care System up to $123 Million in 3 Years
We assessed the use of statin and aspirin treatment in patients with CHD risk >10% vs. patients with CHD risk >20% and the potential reduction in ASCVD events and health care costs. We utilized ARCHeS and the Archimedes Model, a large bio-mathematical model built with randomized controlled trial data for predicting responses to therapies, for the simulations and analyses. In measuring financial effects, we used Medicare data to predict processes and costs of care for the events. Patients selected were from Kaiser Permanente (KP) aged 20-79 years old who had a calculated Framingham CHD risk score of ≥10% or ≥20% and were not on a statin according to the KP drug database. We assumed 80% adherence & 80% eligibility after other exclusions such as cancer, frailty, and refusing therapy.
RESULTS: This resulted in 19,610 members with CHD risk >20% and 156,986 with CHD risk >10% that would be offered the treatment. Compared to standard of care, ASCVD events were reduced by 5.88%, 20.1%, and 33.2% in the >20% risk group and by 3.14%, 12.5%, and 24.88% in the >10% risk group at 3, 10, and 20 years, respectively. This resulted in prevention of adverse events for patients which in turn drove medical care system savings per person of $1,638, $6,453, and $9,288 for the >20% risk group, and $999, $4,871 and $9,672 for >10% risk group, respectively. Population extrapolations are shown below.
CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest the treatment would improve patient outcomes by reducing ASCVD events and decrease medical care system resource use within 3 years by treating members at 20% CHD risk levels. However, significantly more event savings would occur if the 10% CHD risk group were included and continued in both groups for at least 20 years.
Author Disclosures: R.J. Dudl: None. R. Shah: None. W. Chan: None. R.D. Scott: None.
- © 2014 by American Heart Association, Inc.