Abstract MP18: Estimating Coronary Mortality Reductions By Shifting The Population Blood Pressure Distribution Or By Improving The Management Of Hypertensive Patients
Introduction: Hypertension is an important risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) in the UK and US. Although CHD death rates are falling, a large proportion of hypertensive patients are poorly controlled and population salt intake, a major determinant of hypertension, remains well above the recommended daily maximum of 6g/day.
G. Rose identified two strategies to reduce CHD mortality. The first proposes that small, but population-wide, reductions in systolic blood pressure (SBP), achieved by public health measures to reduce salt intake, will deliver large reductions in mortality. The second seeks to reduce mortality by treating hypertensive patients and keeping them below a given risk-threshold.
Here we explore the potential to reduce CHD deaths through a combination of these strategies in England and Wales up to 2030.
Methods: We used the Stock of Health (SoH) model assuming each individual is born with a SoH, and on an annual basis this stock depreciates due to demographic factors, and fixed and variable risk factors. When the individual’s SoH reaches a critical point, a death from CHD occurs.
The model parameters were calibrated using data from the US Cardiovascular Lifetime Risk Pooling Project. Births, deaths and risk factors distributions were estimated using data from England and Wales (ONS).
We modelled a baseline scenario, three population-level strategies and two high-risk strategies. The population level strategies to reduce SBP were: (1) a reduction of 0.1 mmHg achievable by health promotion or labelling strategies, (2) a reduction of 1.3 mmHg achievable by mandatory reformulation and (3) matching England and Wales SBP levels to the observed values in the US population (average reduction:7 mmHg). In the high-risk strategies, 30% and 50% of the currently uncontrolled hypertensive patients respectively are treated to keep their SBP under 140 mmHg.
Results: In the baseline scenario, the total number of CHD deaths from 2013 to 2030 will be approximately 465,000 (95% CI 460,308 to 469,334). We predict 1,244 (95% CI -3,320 to 5,807) fewer deaths by health promotion; approximately 16,203 (11,691 to 20,718) fewer deaths by mandatory reformulation of foods and some 78,051 (74,016 to 82,087) fewer deaths by reducing SBP levels to the observed levels in US. Conversely, by controlling the SBP of 30% and 50% of uncontrolled hypertensive patients, we predict 4,594 (6 to 9,191) and 7,172 (6,473 to 11,767) fewer deaths respectively.
Conclusion: Both risk-targeted treatment strategies and population shifts attributable to salt reduction appear to provide potential substantial contributions to reducing CHD mortality in England and Wales. There remains, however, considerable potential to achieve much greater reductions in mortality by reducing SBP levels to those seen in the US.
Author Disclosures: M. Guzman Castillo: None. M. O'Flaherty: None. P. Couch: None. S. Lloyd: None. M. Sperrin: None. C. Soiland-Reyes: None. B. Green: None. I. Buchan: None. S. Capewell: None.
- © 2014 by American Heart Association, Inc.