Abstract P360: Framingham Risk Score Predicts Mortality in White and African American Adults
Introduction: Coronary heart disease (CHD) remains the number one cause of death in U.S. adults. Identifying clinical tools to predict mortality risk based on CHD risk factors is important for the prevention of CHD-related deaths.
Hypothesis: We tested the hypothesis that the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), which estimates 10-year CHD risk, significantly predicted all-cause mortality in white and African American adults.
Methods: The sample included 6,464 white and African American participants aged 18 to 80 years from the Pennington Center Longitudinal Study. Baseline measurements occurred between 1996 and 2009, and mortality status through 2009 was determined via the National Death Index. Age and smoking status were self-reported. Systolic blood pressure was measured with a sphygmomanometer or validated Omron device. Serum total cholesterol and HDL-C were assayed from a 12-hour fasting blood draw. FRS was calculated based on age- and sex-specific levels of risk (age, smoking, blood pressure, cholesterol, and HDL-C). FRS was converted to sex-specific percentage risk of CHD over 10 years and classified as intermediate to high (≥ 5%) versus low (< 5%). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the association between FRS and all-cause mortality stratified by race. Hazard ratios (HR) are reported. Results: There were 107 deaths (81 in Whites and 26 in African Americans) during 7.1 years of follow-up. The average FRS was 5.6 ± 7.3 for whites and 4.3 ± 7.2 for African Americans. Nineteen percent of whites and 9% of African Americans had an intermediate to high 10-year risk for CHD. The FRS was associated with an increased mortality risk in both white (HR 1.2, 95% CI: 1.1 - 1.2) and African American (HR 1.1, 95% CI: 1.0 - 1.2) adults. Those with an intermediate to high 10-year CHD risk had 5.1 greater odds of mortality at follow-up (for whites: HR 5.1, 95% CI: 3.3 - 7.9; for African Americans: HR 5.1, 95% CI: 2.3 - 11.5).
Conclusion: In conclusion, the FRS has clinical utility for the prediction of mortality in white and African American adults.
- © 2013 by American Heart Association, Inc.