Abstract 19365: Serial Changes in ST2 are Superior to Other Biomarkers in the Prediction of Adverse Events in a Cohort of Ambulatory Chronic Heart Failure Patients

Abstract

Background: Disease progression in heart failure (HF) reflects multiple neurohormonal derangements resulting in adverse prognosis in the absence of overt clinical events. ST2 is up-regulated in response to cardiac injury/hemodynamic stress while modulating cardiac remodeling via inflammatory and apoptotic pathways. Accordingly, we evaluated changes in ST2 over time in conjunction with troponin T (cTnT) and BNP in ambulatory patients with chronic HF.

Methods: A cohort of 191 NYHA class III-IV HF patients was prospectively evaluated with serial specimens collected every 3 months over a 2-year period. Primary end points were death or cardiac transplantation; secondary end points were combined death/transplantation and HF-related hospitalization. Plasma ST2 (Critical Diagnostics) was evaluated against contemporary cTnT (Roche 4th generation) and BNP (Shinogi) assays. Gender specific cut-points (>49.3 and >33.5 ng/mL for males and females, respectively) and a clinically defined optimal cut-point for ST2 (>35 ng/mL) were evaluated.

Results: Time-dependent analyses (dichotomous and continuous variable) demonstrated ST2 gender specific cut-points were superior to a single ST2 cut-point and associated with an increased risk of death or transplantation (HR 4.8, 95% CI 2.8 to 8.3, p<0.0001) and combined death/transplantation/HF-hospitalization (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.7 to 2.5, p<0.0001). Although cTnT remained the strongest predictor of death/transplantation (HR 3.2, 95% CI 1.6 to 5.4, p<0.0001) in multivariate analyses adjusted for cTnT and BNP, ST2 (HR 3.0, 95% CI 1.6 to 5.4, p=0.0003) added significantly to predictive accuracy. Furthermore, elevated ST2 was the only independent predictor of HF-hospitalization (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.4 to 2.1, p<0.0001). In these models BNP was no longer significantly predictive (HR 1.2, 95% CI 0.7 to 2.2, p=0.58).

Conclusions: Serial monitoring of changes in ST2 using gender specific cut-points adds to the diagnostic ability of cTnT in predicting mortality and/or transplantation in outpatients with chronic HF. ST2 uniquely predicts HF-hospitalization/death/transplantation, suggesting a serial monitoring strategy with cTnT and ST2 will optimize identification of HF patients at increased risk for events.