Abstract 12562: Performance Analysis of EUROSCORE 2 as Compared to Logistic EuroSCORE and STS Scores for Predicting 30-day Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement
Aims: Risk scores are commonly used to identify high-risk patients eligible for transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) and to predict periprocedural mortality. EuroSCORE 2 has been recently assessed as a predictor of mortality for cardiac surgery but it has never been evaluated for TAVR.
Methods and Results: Consecutive patients (n=250) in whom a balloon-expandable Edwards prosthesis was implanted between 2006 and 2011 were included for analysis. Patient demographics were recorded in a prospective database. Correlations and c-statistic were calculated for logistic EuroSCORE, Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score, and EuroSCORE 2. The primary end point was 30-day mortality and occurred in 7.6%. The mean logistic EuroSCORE was 22.6±12.8% and overestimated mortality as compared to STS (7.3±4.1%) and EuroSCORE 2 (7.7±5.8%) scores. EuroSCORE 2, but not logistic EuroSCORE and STS scores, was significantly higher in patients who died as compared to those who survived (10.3±6.0% vs. 7.5±5.7%, p=0.04; 27.6±13.4% vs. 22.2±12.7%, p=0.07 and 9.5±6.7% vs. 7.1±3.8%, p=0.13, respectively). The area under the curve was 0.66 (95% CI 0.52-0.79, p=0.02) for EuroSCORE 2, 0.63 (95% CI 0.51-0.76, p=0.06) for logistic EuroSCORE, and 0.58 (95% CI 0.43-0.73, p=0.23) for STS score.
Conclusions: EuroSCORE 2 was barely superior to logistic EuroSCORE and STS scores in predicting 30-day mortality after TAVR. However, EuroSCORE 2 had only moderate accuracy in predicting mortality after TAVR.
- © 2012 by American Heart Association, Inc.