Abstract 12393: Body Mass Index Predicts Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation: Results of a Contemporary Meta-Analysis
Background: There is increasing evidence that obesity is associated with an increased risk of developing atrial fibrillation (AF). A prior meta-analysis concluded that there was no significant association between obesity and postoperative AF. Since this meta-analysis, however, there have been a number of more recent studies published.
Methods: Electronic databases were searched for published studies up until December 2011. Studies were included if they assessed the incidence of postcardiac surgery AF in relation to body mass index (BMI). Data were pooled using random effects meta-analysis where appropriate. When study data were reported as a series of dose-specific relative risks compared to a reference BMI category, these were transformed into risk estimates per unit of BMI via the Hartemink method to allow pooling.
Results: Twenty-seven studies were identified. One study was not considered for pooled analysis due to already-included reports from the same institution. Nine studies did not report sufficient data to convert categorical to continuous relative risks. Of the remaining studies, pooled analysis of twelve studies reporting HR data revealed a significant association between BMI and incident postoperative AF (OR per unit of BMI 1.035 [95 CI% 1.029 to 1.042]).
Conclusions: For every unit increase in BMI, there is a 3.5% increased risk of postoperative AF. These data suggest that obesity predicts the development of postoperative AF following cardiac surgery. Our findings raise the interesting possibility that preoperative weight loss may minimise the risk of developing postoperative AF and require further study elsewhere.
- © 2012 by American Heart Association, Inc.