Abstract MP094: Projected Decline in the United States of Combined Heart Disease and Stroke Mortality below Cancer Mortality by the Year 2020
Background / Objectives: Heart disease (HD) has been the leading cause of mortality in the United States since 1910 and stroke (STK) is the 4th leading cause. Data from 2009 shows that mortality from HD (179.8 / 100,000 [100K] person years [PY]) is slightly higher than cancer (CAN) mortality (173.6 / 100K PY) and that the gap between combined HD/STK and CAN mortality has narrowed considerably between 2000 (318.5 HD/STK, 199.6 CAN) and 2009 (218.7 HD/STK, 173.6 CAN). These rates are projected through 2020 to determine whether combined HD/STK mortality is likely to fall below cancer mortality overall and within major race-ethnicity groups.
Methods: HD, STK, and CAN U.S. mortality rates were projected from 2009 to 2020 based on annualized rate of change in mortality from 2000-2009. Because published race-ethnicity specific rates were available only through 2007, 2020 rates were based on the annualized rates of change from 2000-2007. Rates are age-adjusted based on the 2000 US census and expressed per 100K PY.
Results: HD mortality is likely to decline below CAN mortality by 2011 and in each race-ethnicity group by mid-decade. By 2020, combined HD/STK mortality is likely to be lower than CAN mortality in the U.S. population, declining to 138.3 for HD/STK and 144.5 for CAN (see figure), and in each race-ethnicity group except Blacks (BL). The rates in whites (WH), BL, Asians (AS), and Hispanics (HIS) are expected to decline as follows: WH decline from 228.3 HD/STK, 199.6 CAN in 2007 to 128.9 HD/STK, 145.8 CAN in 2020; BL 307.6 HD/STK, 215.5 CAN in 2007 to 183.4 HD/STK, 165.7 CAN; AS 135.5 HD/STK, 106.7 CAN in 2007 to 65.9 HD/STK, 83.1 CAN; and HIS 168.7 HD/STK, 116.2 CAN in 2007 to 86.6 HK/STK, 88.2 CAN.
Conclusions: The decline of HD/STK below CAN mortality will represent a major milestone in public health, culminating a half century during which rates of HD/stroke have trended lower due to better primary and secondary prevention and improved medical care. However, we must address ongoing disparities associated with race-ethnicity and socioeconomic status.
- © 2012 by American Heart Association, Inc.