Abstract MP044: Prediction of 10-year and Lifetime Risk for Cardiovascular Disease in Mexico: Results from a National Representative Survey in 2006
Introduction: Mexico is undergoing a fast-paced epidemiologic transition, yet little is known about its cardiovascular risk. In the absence of Mexican prediction tools algorithms developed for other populations may be informative and a first step in the development of risk calculation tools specific to this population.
Methods: We applied two US-based algorithms based on the Framingham Heart Study data to stratify 5,074 cardiovascular disease-free Mexican adults by 10-year and lifetime cardiovascular risk. We used data from the 2006 Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT), a publicly available complex multistage, stratified nationally representative survey. Participants were aged 20 to 82 years and represent 42 million Mexican adults. Ten-year and lifetime predicted risks were combined to define the following groups: low 10-year (<10%)/low lifetime (<39%) predicted risk, low 10-year (<10%)/high lifetime (≥39%) predicted risk and high 10-year (≥10%) predicted risk or diagnosed diabetes.
Results: While we estimated that according to these tools a slight majority of Mexican adults (56% or 24 million) are at low short-term/low lifetime predicted risk for cardiovascular disease, there are 10 million Mexican adults (24%) that despite a low short-term risk have a high lifetime predicted cardiovascular risk, while 20% (8 million) are at a high short-term risk for cardiovascular disease. Women had a higher prevalence of low short-term/low lifetime predicted risk (64 vs 46%), while men had a high short term predicted risk that was twice that of women (26 vs 14%). The prevalence of low short-term either with low or high lifetime predicted cardiovascular risk was somewhat higher in rural areas, but there was no substantial difference between participants from urban and rural areas in the prevalence of high short-term risk for cardiovascular disease.
Conclusion: Half of Mexican adults have an elevated risk for developing cardiovascular disease during their lifetimes, but less than a half of those are identified using traditional short-term risk calculation tools only. This is the first exercise of this kind in Mexico, risk stratification was based on algorithms that may not be entirely applicable to Mexican population and require refinement.
- © 2012 by American Heart Association, Inc.