Abstract 11090: Higher Risk Prognosis for Major Cardiac Events in Patients with Non-Calcified Plaques on Coronary CT Following a Median of 63 Months Using Kaplan-Meier Analysis and Cox Proportional Hazard Regression
Purpose: To evaluate patient prognosis after coronary CT and compare the risk of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) between patients with and without non-calcified plaques (NCP), or calcified plaques (CP) using a Kaplan Meier analysis and a Cox proportional hazard model.
Materials and Methods: A total of 285 consecutive patients with suspected coronary artery disease (177 male, mean age 65.1 ± 12.0 years, hypertension, 62%; diabetes mellitus, 27%; dyslipidemia, 48%; smokers, 46%; and obese, 32%), who underwent coronary CT (Light speed Ultra 16) from 2003 to 2004 were included. The patients were followed for a median of 62.9 ± 32.8 months after coronary CT and incidence of MACE was compared.
Results: 39% had NCP and 74% had CP. 13 had a MACE, including cardiac death and coronary revascularization after coronary CT. Patients with NCP had a higher risk of MACE (8.3%) than those without (2.3%; p=0.02) during the observation period. Significant differences between the subjects with and without NCP were seen at each time point and when whole period of follow up was compared with a Kaplan Meier analysis and log rank test (p=0.02; Figure 1). A Cox proportional hazards model was used to test the significance of NCP as a predictor of MACE considering influence of age, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and obesity. This analysis revealed that NCP was predictor of MACE (Hazard ratio 3.60, p=0.04). Patients with CP had a higher risk of MACE (6.1%) than those without (0%) (p=0.03) during the observation period. A significant difference between the subjects with and without CP was also seen at each time point and when whole period of follow up was compared with a Kaplan Meier analysis and log rank test (p=0.02; Figure 2). But a Cox proportional hazards model revealed that CP was not predictor of MACE.
Conclusions: Patients with NCP on coronary CT had a higher risk of MACE than those without following a median of 63 months using a Kaplan Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazard regression with a hazard ratio of 3.60.
- © 2011 by American Heart Association, Inc.