Abstract 3558: Waist Circumference and Body Mass Index Powerful Predictors of Metabolic Syndrome in a Population of Healthy Men
Background : Metabolic syndrome (MS) is a public health problem that is linked to a high risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Little is known about its natural history. We aimed to find the best predictors of MS in a general healthy population of men in France.
Method: We studied a population of 10 264 consecutive healthy men (mean age 49.7 ± 0.2 y.) who had two routine health examinations between 1997 and 2007 and were free of MS at the first visit. Men with known ischemic cardiac disease and treatment for diabetes, hypertension or lipids were excluded. MS parameters were assessed at both the first and second visits (mean time between both visits: 4.85 [1–14] y.) using NCEP ATP-III criteria. A ROC curve analysis was performed for each parameter at first visit to assess its power to predict MS at the second visit using a cut-off value with a maximal sensitivity and a specificity greater than 0.50.
Results: In this population of 10 264 men, 524 (5.1%) had developed MS by the second visit whereas 9 740 remained free of MS. The table⇓ shows the percentage of abnormal parameters of MS at first visit in each group (MS-free or subjects with MS at second visit) plus BMI, the best cut-off value and its sensitivity and specificity.
Conclusion: Waist circumference and BMI are the most powerful parameters to predict MS in a population of healthy men.