Abstract 4091: Traditional Risk Factors and Major ECG Abnormalities for both Short-Term and Long-Term Follow-up
Background: Traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are known to predict both short- and long-term CVD mortality. However, data are sparse regarding the relative strength of these risk factors with different durations of follow-up. We sought to compare the association of traditional CVD risk factors with CVD mortality over different durations of follow-up.
Methods: We included participants of the Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry (CHA) who were free of baseline CVD at enrollment in 1967–1973. Baseline risk factors were measured at study entry. CVD death was determined using ICD codes from the National Death Index. Age-adjusted and multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard ratios for each risk factor were compared across the three different follow-up periods.
Results: There were 9,033 men and 7,575 women (mean age of 48 years) in the study sample. The Table⇓ shows the age-adjusted hazards ratios for CVD death associated with each baseline risk factor during the 3 different decades of follow-up in men. Results were similar with multivariable adjustment for all measured risk factors in both men and women. In general, the hazards ratio for each risk factor was lower with longer follow-up time for both men and women. A notable exception was BMI which appeared to increase. Major ECG abnormalities were associated with greater risk in men than women particularly for ST depression [HR 5.00 (3.80– 6.60) in men vs. 1.24 (0.69–2.24) in women]. In contrast, the observed risk for smoking and DM were much stronger in women.
Conclusion: The relative hazard associated with most traditional risk factors attenuates with increasing duration of follow-up. In contrast, the observed risk for BMI appears to increase across follow-up periods, reflecting the likely association between measured BMI and the development of future CVD risk factors.