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(Circulation. 2007;115:1975-1981.)
© 2007 American Heart Association, Inc.

Health Services and Outcomes Research

Identifying Heart Failure Patients at High Risk for Near-Term Cardiovascular Events With Serial Health Status Assessments

Mikhail Kosiborod, MD; Gabriel E. Soto, MD, PhD; Philip G. Jones, MS; Harlan M. Krumholz, MD, SM; William S. Weintraub, MD; Prakash Deedwania, MD; John A. Spertus, MD, MPH

From the Mid America Heart Institute and University of Missouri–Kansas City, Kansas City (M.K., P.G.J., J.A.S.); Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, Mo (G.E.S.); Yale University, New Haven, Conn (H.M.K.); Christiana Healthcare System, Newark, Del (W.S.W); and VA Central California Health Care System and University of California, San Francisco, Fresno (P.D.).

Correspondence to John A. Spertus, MD, MPH, Mid America Heart Institute, 4401 Wornall Rd, Kansas City, MO 64111. E-mail spertusj{at}umkc.edu

Received October 17, 2006; accepted February 9, 2007.

Background— Identification of heart failure outpatients at increased risk for clinical deterioration remains a critical challenge, with few tools currently available to assist clinicians. We tested whether serial health status assessments with the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) can identify patients at increased risk for mortality and hospitalization.

Methods and Results— We evaluated 1358 patients with heart failure after an acute myocardial infarction in the Eplerenone’s Neurohormonal Efficacy and Survival Study, a multicenter randomized trial that included serial KCCQ assessments. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to examine whether changes in KCCQ scores during successive outpatient visits were independently associated with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality or hospitalization. Change in KCCQ (KCCQ) was linearly associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], for each 5-point decrease in KCCQ, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.19) and the combined outcome of cardiovascular mortality or hospitalization (HR for each 5-point decrease in KCCQ, 1.12; 95% CI 1.07 to 1.18). In Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, all-cause mortality among patients with KCCQ of –10, >–10 to <10, and >10 points was 26%, 16%, and 13%, respectively (P=0.008). After multivariable adjustment, the linear relationship between KCCQ and both all-cause mortality and combined cardiovascular death and hospitalization persisted (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.18; and HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.17 for each 5-point decrease in KCCQ, respectively).

Conclusions— In heart failure outpatients, serial health status assessments with the KCCQ can identify high-risk patients and may prove useful in directing the frequency of follow-up and the intensity of treatment.

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