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(Circulation. 1999;100:II-48.)
© 1999 American Heart Association, Inc.

Surgery for Valvular Heart Disease

Predictors of the Long-Term Outcome After Combined Aortic and Mitral Valve Surgery

Juraj Turina, MD; Thomas Stark, BM; Burkhardt Seifert, PhD; Marko Turina, MD

From the Cardiology Division, Department of Internal Medicine (J.T., T.S.), Clinic for Cardiovascular Surgery (M.T.), and Biostatistics Division, Institute for Social and Preventive Medicine (B.S.), University Hospital, Zurich, Switzerland.

Correspondence to Juraj Turina, MD, Cardiology Division, University Hospital, 8091 Zurich, Switzerland. E-mail juraj.turina{at}dim.usz.ch

Background—The influence of preoperative clinical, hemodynamic, and surgical procedures on long-term prognosis after combined aortic and mitral valve surgery is not well known.

Methods and Results—One hundred seventy patients (mean age, 50.5 years; 102 men and 68 women) who underwent surgery for chronic combined aortic and mitral valvular disease between 1975 and 1989 were followed up for an average of 10.6 years. Additional repair of tricuspid valve was performed in 29 patients (17%), and aortocoronary bypass graft surgery was performed in 7 patients (4.1%). The perioperative mortality rate was 4%, and 10- and 20-year survival rates were 61% and 33%. Only 12 of 94 deaths (11%) were non–cardiac related. At 10 and 20 years, 57% and 21% of patients were free of reoperation, respectively. The main predictors of late survival in univariate analysis were age at surgery (P=0.0002), preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction (P=0.002), cardiac index (P=0.007), tricuspid surgery (P=0.03), pulmonary vascular resistance (P=0.03), NYHA class (P=0.04), and additional aortocoronary bypass graft surgery (P=0.04). Duration of symptoms, gender, cause of valvular disease, and type of prosthesis were not predictive of postoperative outcome. In multivariate stepwise Cox analysis, ejection fraction (P=0.0008), age at surgery (P=0.0011), and tricuspid surgery (P=0.007) were independent predictors of late survival.

Conclusions—In combined aortic and mitral valve disease, preoperative myocardial function is the main predictor of long-term survival. Low operative mortality rates and good late outcome make valve replacement mandatory before deterioration of myocardial function occurs. Additional tricuspid valve disease requiring surgery significantly decreases the late survival rate.

Key Words: surgery • valves • survival • prognosis • transplantation