(Circulation. 1998;98:1860-1868.)
© 1998 American Heart Association, Inc.
Clinical Investigation and Reports |
From the University of Alberta (P.W.A., Y.F., W.-C.C.), Edmonton, Alberta, Canada; the Cleveland Clinic Foundation (E.J.T.), Cleveland, Ohio; the Duke Clinical Research Institute (C.B.G., K.L.L., R.M.C.); Hospital Clinic (A.B.), University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; and Universitaire Ziekenhuizen Leuven (F.V.d.W.), Leuven, Belgium.
Correspondence to Paul W. Armstrong, MD, Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, 2F1.30 W.C. Mackenzie Health Sciences Centre, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, T6G 2B7. E-mail paul.armstrong{at}ualberta.ca
| Abstract |
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Methods and ResultsWe assessed the 1-year prognosis of the 12 142 patients enrolled in the GUSTO-IIb trial by the presence (n=4125) or absence (n=8001) of ST-segment elevation. This latter group was further categorized into those with baseline myocardial infarction (n=3513) or unstable angina (n=4488). We also assessed the incidence of recurrent ischemia and its impact on outcomes. Recurrent ischemia was significantly rarer in those with ST-segment elevation (23%) than in those without (35%; P<0.001). Mortality at 30 days was greater among patients with ST-segment elevation (6.1% versus 3.8%; P<0.001) but less so at 6 months; by 1 year, mortality did not differ significantly (9.6% versus 8.8%). Patients with nonST-segment-elevation infarction had higher rates of reinfarction at 6 months (9.8% versus 6.2%) and higher 6-month (8.8% versus 5.0%) and 1-year mortality rates (11.1% versus 7.0%) than such patients who had unstable angina.
ConclusionsRefractory ischemia was associated with an approximate doubling of mortality among patients with ST-segment elevation and a near tripling of risk among those without ST elevation. This study highlights not only the substantial increase in late mortality and reinfarction with nonST-segment-elevation infarction but also the opportunities for better triage and application of therapeutic strategies for patients with recurrent ischemia.
Key Words: myocardial infarction mortality ischemia prognosis
| Introduction |
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Recurrent ischemia after presentation with acute coronary syndromes, as well as myocardial (re)infarction, portends an unfavorable outcome and has major implications for healthcare resource use.3 4 5 6 7 Data from small to modest observational studies suggest that recurrent ischemia is more common among patients presenting without ST-segment elevation as opposed to those with ST elevation, but precise estimation of the frequency and natural history of recurrent ischemia in a contemporary practice environment is lacking.4 8 Some studies have suggested that patients presenting with ST elevation who receive thrombolysis may be at even greater risk for recurrent ischemia,4 9 but no large study has systematically examined this issue among patients with the spectrum of acute coronary presentations, encompassing those with and without ST elevation.
Accordingly, we examined these issues among the spectrum of acute coronary syndromes in the 12 142 patients enrolled in the GUSTO-IIb trial, with the following objectives: (1) to evaluate the long-term outcome (the 1-year prognosis) of patients presenting with ST elevation versus no ST elevation, who were in turn partitioned by whether they presented with MI or unstable angina; (2) to assess the incidence of recurrent ischemia among these subsets and evaluate its impact on survival and nonfatal (re)infarction; and (3) to determine baseline variables predictive of recurrent ischemia and unfavorable outcome.
| Methods |
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3% of total creatine kinase at
baseline or 8 hours after enrollment; n=3513) and those with unstable
angina (n=4488). Both MI and myocardial reinfarction events were
independently reviewed by a clinical events committee blinded to
treatment assignment for purposes of final analyses, as
described previously.2
Nonrefractory recurrent ischemia was defined as symptoms of
ischemia, with ST-segment deviation or definite T-wave
inversion, and/or new hypotension, pulmonary edema, or cardiac
murmur thought by the physician to represent myocardial
ischemia while the patient was hospitalized. Refractory
recurrent ischemia consisted of symptoms of ischemia
with ECG changes persisting for
10 minutes despite the use of
nitrates and either ß-blockers or calcium-channel blockers. For
purposes of the present study, patients were classified into 3
groups: those with no recurrent ischemia and those with
recurrent ischemia, who were subdivided into either
nonrefractory or refractory ischemic groups. The end points of
(re)infarction and death were available at 6 months and mortality data
at 12 months.
Baseline characteristics of the patients were summarized in terms of percentages for categorical variables and medians and 25th and 75th percentiles for continuous variables. A polytomous logistic regression procedure was used to identify the baseline predictors of nonrefractory and refractory ischemia.10 In addition, logistic regression methods were used to predict 1-year mortality separately for the ST-elevation and nonST-elevation groups, in which recurrent ischemia was categorized by the number of days before its occurrence (0 to 1 day, 2 to 3 days, or >3 days). Revascularization procedures were categorized similarly to account for their effects on mortality. Univariate analyses of potential predictors were performed first, followed by backward, stepwise variable-selection procedures. The initial models were determined after their assumptions, the shapes and scales of the variables, and any misfitting and influential cases were examined. For ease of interpretation and to ensure comparability, the odds ratio was assessed for a patient at the 75th percentile against a patient at the 25th percentile for each continuous variable.11 Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests were used to further characterize and compare group survival rates over time.
The overall performance of the models was assessed in terms of
the Hosmer-Lemeshow
2 test and the C-index (or
the area under a receiver-operator characteristic curve). Because the
data involved time-dependent covariates (such as recurrent
ischemia and revascularization procedures)
and censoring at 1 year, the Cox regression model with time-dependent
covariates was used to validate the logistic regression model for
1-year mortality. The results of the 2 models were similar, as
expected; hence, only the logistic regression model is
presented in this article. In addition, a bootstrap resampling
technique was used to further validate these
models.12 Each model was tested on 200 to 300
bootstrap samples drawn with replacement from the original sample. The
percentage of times the variables became statistically significant
with these bootstrap samples was used as a measure of their importance
in the predictive model.
The cutoff of 50% is often used to identify significant variables. The degree of bias associated with the original coefficient estimates was evaluated by the distribution of the bootstrap coefficients, the normality of which was assessed by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Bias was judged as not a serious concern if it was estimated to be within 25% of the standard error.11 All tests were 2-tailed, with a P<0.05 level of significance. All analyses were performed with SPSS (version 7.5) and STATA (release 5) software.
| Results |
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Within the nonST-elevation patients, those with unstable angina were more often female, less commonly white, and more often hypertensive than those with MI at baseline. Prior MI and angina were more common in patients with unstable angina, as were previous coronary bypass, angioplasty, and heart failure. Patients with unstable angina had a higher systolic blood pressure on admission, a slightly lower heart rate, more commonly were in Killip class I, and presented 30 minutes earlier after symptom onset to the hospital. Heart failure and shock were substantially less frequent in patients with unstable angina than in MI patients. As per the protocol, thrombolytic therapy (a choice left to the principal investigator) was used in 74% of patients with ST-segment elevation, and primary angioplasty (as part of a substudy comparing angioplasty with thrombolysis) was used in 11% of patients.
Recurrent ischemia was significantly less common (23%) among
those presenting with ST elevation than among those without ST
elevation (35%) (P<0.001; Figure 1
). The rate of recurrent
ischemia was similar in those without ST elevation whether they
had MI or unstable angina on admission. The distribution of recurrent
ischemia into nonrefractory versus refractory categories was
homogeneous across categories of acute coronary
syndromes;
1 in 5 patients with recurrent ischemia was
classified as refractory.
|
Although the mortality rate at 30 days was greater among patients with
ST-segment elevation than among those without ST elevation, this
difference narrowed at 6 months and disappeared at 1 year (Table 2
). Reinfarction
rates at 6 months were similar between these 2 categories.
Categorization of nonST-elevation patients into MI and unstable
angina groups revealed distinct patterns of mortality and reinfarction:
a consistently higher rate of (re)infarction and death occurred
in patients without ST elevation who had MI on admission than among
those with unstable angina.
|
Among patients without recurrent ischemia (Figure 2
), the survival rates for
nonST-elevation MI patients at 30 days, although better than that of
patients presenting with ST elevation, crossed at 6 months and were
nearly identical at 1 year. Although patients with unstable angina and
no recurrent ischemia had a low mortality rate at 30 days,
their survival curve showed a steeper decline than that evident in MI
patients, and mortality had nearly tripled by 1 year.
|
Recurrent ischemia, especially when it was refractory, was
associated with a substantial increase in reinfarction at 30 days and 6
months in all patient categories (Table 2
). As shown in Figure 3
, refractory ischemia had a
major negative impact on survival in both ST-segment categories
(P<0.03). Nonrefractory ischemia also affected
survival negatively in both categories (P=0.32 and
P<0.02, respectively). Patients without
ischemia were more likely to survive 1 year if they
presented without ST elevation than with ST elevation
(P<0.002); however, this largely reflected the much better
survival in unstable angina patients. The negative impact of recurrent
ischemia was also evident among patients without ST-segment
elevation (Figure 4
), whether they had MI
on admission or unstable angina. Irrespective of the presence and type
of ischemia (nonrefractory or refractory), those with
nonST-elevation MI on admission had a significantly worse 1-year
survival than did patients with unstable angina. Within the MI and
unstable angina groups, 1-year survival differed significantly
according to the type of ischemia, except that in unstable
angina patients, there was only a trend for nonrefractory
ischemia to confer worse survival than no ischemia
(P=0.08).
|
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Table 3
presents
baseline characteristics by ST-segment status and by the presence or
absence of recurrent ischemia. For patients with ST elevation,
those who underwent primary angioplasty experienced recurrent
ischemia less often than those who received
thrombolysis (11.2% and 2.6% for nonrefractory and
refractory ischemia with primary PTCA versus 18.5% and 5.6%
with thrombolysis; P=0.0001). In both
ST-segment strata, those with recurrent ischemia were older,
more frequently female, and more likely to have prior hypertension.
Patients with recurrent ischemia were less likely to be current
smokers and more likely to have prior infarction, angina pectoris,
coronary bypass grafting, and angioplasty. Patients with
recurrent ischemia had a higher frequency of
revascularization and more frequent therapy with
nitrates, calcium-channel blockers, ACE inhibitors, and
ß-blockers. These patients also had more frequent bleeding and higher
incidences of heart failure and shock.
|
Significant baseline predictors of nonrefractory and refractory
ischemia, together with their odds ratios and adjusted
2 statistics, are presented in Figure 5
. The most important risk factor for
both nonrefractory and refractory ischemia was a history of
previous angina. Other risk factors common to both types of recurrent
ischemia were nonST-segment-elevation MI, white race,
enrollment outside the United States, and past smoking. Previous
cerebrovascular disease and current smoking were significant risk
factors for nonrefractory but not refractory ischemia. On the
other hand, significant risk factors specific to refractory
ischemia included low weight, a high body mass index,
hypertension, diabetes, and old age. None of the interaction terms were
significant. As expected, the predictive power based solely on baseline
data was modest, as indicated by the C-index values of 0.63 and 0.66,
respectively, for predicting nonrefractory and refractory
ischemia.
|
The 1-year mortality model is summarized in Figure 6
. After adjustment for baseline
characteristics and revascularization procedures,
recurrent ischemia remained a significant risk factor in both
ST-segment strata, especially for those ischemic incidents that
occurred within 3 days of enrollment. Age was by far the most
significant predictor, as indicated by the adjusted
2 values of 173 and 168 for the ST-elevation
and nonST-elevation groups, respectively. Other highly significant,
independent predictors of 1-year mortality for both ST-segment strata
included angioplasty, heart rate, history of diabetes, and recurrent
ischemia. Baseline Killip class, systolic blood
pressure, and bypass surgery were significant predictors for those with
ST-segment elevation but not for those without. Within the
nonST-elevation stratum, whether the index event was an MI was a
significant predictor of 1-year mortality. Other significant factors
specific to this stratum included previous MI, previous congestive
heart failure, and diastolic blood pressure. The only
significant interaction was between age and previous MI, but the
predictive power was only minimally enhanced by including this
interaction term in the model. The C-index values were 0.82 and 0.80
for the ST-elevation and the nonST-elevation models, respectively,
reflecting their excellent ability to discriminate between patients who
did and did not die within 1 year.
|
| Discussion |
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Recurrent ischemia, nonrefractory or refractory, even when noted only during the hospitalization, had a major effect on the frequency of later MI at 30 days and 6 months, as well as on survival through 1-year follow-up. Refractory ischemia was associated with an approximate doubling of risk of death among ST-elevation patients compared with those without recurrent ischemia. In patients without ST elevation on admission, refractory ischemia had an even greater negative impact: an approximate tripling of their risk of mortality with its occurrence. Moreover, patients without ST elevation on admission who had refractory ischemia and MI on admission had the worst survival of any patient category at all time points.
Comparison of Patients by ST-Segment Elevation Status
Although there was substantially more recurrent ischemia
among patients without ST-segment elevation on admission than among
those with ST-segment elevation, once it had occurred, there was
remarkable homogeneity in the distribution of refractory versus
nonrefractory types of ischemia. There was also symmetry in the
frequency of recurrent ischemia among MI and unstable angina
patients within the nonST-elevation group. Importantly, we have
confirmed the experience of Stone and
coworkers9 in a smaller study of this population
by showing less recurrent ischemia in patients who underwent
reperfusion with primary PTCA than in those who received
thrombolysis. This was also evident in the prospective
substudy of primary angioplasty in the GUSTO-IIb
trial.13
The basis for the steeper increase in mortality from 30 days to 1 year
(Table 2
and Figure 2
) among unstable angina patients without
recurrent ischemia than among those with ST-segment elevation
or nonST-elevation MI is unclear, but it is important to appreciate
that only symptomatic ischemia was identified
during hospitalization in the present study. The majority of
ischemia during this time is silent, and its frequency and
duration bear a direct relationship to
prognosis.14 15 Better prognostic triage and
selective therapeutic strategies for such patients might be possible
with the use of novel cardiac markers of myocardial necrosis acquired
early in the course of the event.16 17
The present study highlights not only the major increase in late mortality and reinfarction among patients who present without ST elevation but also the potential opportunities for therapy. New pharmacological strategies have thus far primarily shown good short-term but lesser long-term therapeutic effects. This problem may relate in part to heterogenous pathophysiology, rebound ischemia, and only temporary passivation of the coronary lesion. Strategies that involve both acute and sustained therapy with low-molecular-weight heparins, other antithrombin agents, platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors, and/or coronary stenting offer substantial promise and are currently being investigated.18 19
It is uncertain whether performing angiography and revascularization even more frequently than was done in our patients without ST-segment elevation would have yielded better long-term outcomes; this deserves further clinical investigation.20 Recently, the VA NonQ-Wave Infarction Strategies in-Hospital (VANQWISH) investigators, in a randomized trial of acute coronary syndromes without ST elevation, showed a higher frequency of unfavorable outcomes among those randomized to an aggressive invasive/interventional strategy.21 These workers, like others, suggest noninvasive triage and "watchful waiting" may be most beneficial.20 Identification of high-risk baseline factors, such as those shown in the current study, along with other diagnostic triage might allow more appropriate selection of therapeutic strategies.
In any case, the present study highlights the distinctive characteristics of patients with versus those without ST-segment elevation among the acute coronary syndromes and emphasizes the important differences between patients who have MI and patients who have unstable angina in the latter category. The major effect of symptomatic recurrent ischemia, especially when it is refractory to medical management, emphasizes the need for continuing vigilance and exploration of enhanced therapeutic strategies.
| Acknowledgments |
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Received March 24, 1998; revision received July 6, 1998; accepted July 21, 1998.
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Y. Fu, W.-C. Chang, D. Mark, R. M. Califf, B. Mackenzie, C. B. Granger, E. J. Topol, M. Hlatky, and P. W. Armstrong Canadian-American Differences in the Management of Acute Coronary Syndromes in the GUSTO IIb Trial : One-Year Follow-Up of Patients Without ST-Segment Elevation Circulation, September 19, 2000; 102(12): 1375 - 1381. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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E. M. Antman, M. Cohen, P. J. L. M. Bernink, C. H. McCabe, T. Horacek, G. Papuchis, B. Mautner, R. Corbalan, D. Radley, and E. Braunwald The TIMI Risk Score for Unstable Angina/Non-ST Elevation MI: A Method for Prognostication and Therapeutic Decision Making JAMA, August 16, 2000; 284(7): 835 - 842. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S J Maynard, G O Scott, J W Riddell, and A A J Adgey Regular review: Management of acute coronary syndromes BMJ, July 22, 2000; 321(7255): 220 - 223. [Full Text] |
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E. Boersma, K. S. Pieper, E. W. Steyerberg, R. G. Wilcox, W.-C. Chang, K. L. Lee, K. M. Akkerhuis, R. A. Harrington, J. W. Deckers, P. W. Armstrong, et al. Predictors of Outcome in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndromes Without Persistent ST-Segment Elevation : Results From an International Trial of 9461 Patients Circulation, June 6, 2000; 101(22): 2557 - 2567. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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H.D. White International differences: selection, noise, or real? Eur. Heart J., March 1, 2000; 21(5): 339 - 342. [PDF] |
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K.M Akkerhuis, J.W Deckers, E Boersma, R.A Harrington, J Stepinska, K.W Mahaffey, R.G Wilcox, A.M Lincoff, M Keltai, E.J Topol, et al. Geographic variability in outcomes within an international trial of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibition in patients with acute coronary syndromes. Results from PURSUIT Eur. Heart J., March 1, 2000; 21(5): 371 - 381. [Abstract] [PDF] |
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S. Fuchs, R. Kornowski, R. Mehran, L. F. Satler, A. D. Pichard, K. M. Kent, M. K. Hong, S. Slack, G. W. Stone, and M. B. Leon Cardiac troponin I levels and clinical outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndromes: The potential role of early percutaneous revascularization J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., November 15, 1999; 34(6): 1704 - 1710. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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P. W. Armstrong Pursuing Progress in Acute Coronary Syndromes Circulation, October 12, 1999; 100(15): 1586 - 1589. [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S. Savonitto, D. Ardissino, C. B. Granger, G. Morando, M. D. Prando, A. Mafrici, C. Cavallini, G. Melandri, T. D. Thompson, A. Vahanian, et al. Prognostic Value of the Admission Electrocardiogram in Acute Coronary Syndromes JAMA, February 24, 1999; 281(8): 707 - 713. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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