(Circulation. 1995;92:50-57.)
© 1995 American Heart Association, Inc.
Articles |
From the Divisions of Cardiology and Cardiothoracic Surgery, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Ga.
Correspondence to William S. Weintraub, MD, Division of Cardiology, Emory University Hospital, 1365 Clifton Rd NE, Atlanta, GA 30322.
| Abstract |
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Methods and Results The source of data was the clinical database at Emory University. The surgical procedure and statistical methods were standard. Data were collected prospectively and entered into a computerized database. Follow-up was by letter, telephone, or hospital records documenting additional events resulting in readmission. In-hospital correlates of survival were determined by logistic regression, and long-term correlates were determined by Cox model analysis. There were 2030 patients with a mean age of 61 and a mean of 7.8±4.1 years since the first surgery. The mean ejection fraction was close to 50%, and the majority had three-vessel or left main disease. Urgent or emergency surgery was required in 16.6%. The internal mammary was used in 60.1%. Q-wave myocardial infarctions occurred in just over 5%. Neurological events increased from 1.2% at less than age 50 to 4.1% at more than age 70. The hospital mortality increased from 5.7% at less than age 50 to 10% at more than age 70, with an overall rate of 7.0%. Mortality was 5.7% for elective, 10.9% for urgent, and 16.4% for emergency cases. Angina was noted at follow-up in 41.3%. Urgent or emergency surgery, reduced ejection fraction, hypertension, older age, and female sex were univariate and multivariate correlates of in-hospital death. Diabetes was a univariate correlate only. Five- and 10-year survival rates were 76% and 55%, respectively. Five- and 10-year myocardial infarctionfree survival rates were 63% and 40%, respectively. By 12 years, few patients were free of cardiac events. The univariate and multivariate correlates of long-term mortality were older age, reduced ejection fraction, hypertension, diseased vessels, presence of diabetes, congestive failure, and emergency surgery, with a strong trend for female sex. The use of the internal mammary artery was not a correlate for long-term mortality.
Conclusions Patients undergoing reoperative procedures have higher mortality initially and at long term than patients undergoing a first procedure. Expected mortality based on covariates may help in the decision of whether to perform reoperative coronary artery bypass graft surgery.
Key Words: surgery aging bypass mortality morbidity
| Introduction |
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| Methods |
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Surgical Technique
Extracorporeal circulation was instituted
by standard
techniques,5 and perfusion was maintained at 2.0 to 2.4
L · min-1 · m-2. Systemic
hypothermia
(30°C to 25°C), topical hypothermia, and cold potassium
cardioplegia were used for myocardial protection. Cardioplegic solution
was reinfused at 20- to 30-minute intervals to maintain an
intramyocardial temperature of <20°C. After the patient was weaned
from cardiopulmonary bypass, the chest was closed with
standard techniques. The patients were then transferred to the surgical
intensive care unit.
Definitions
Angina was defined by the Canadian
Cardiovascular Society classification.6
The historical variables of previous myocardial infarction,
diabetes mellitus, systemic hypertension, and prior myocardial
infarction were obtained for the patient. An artery was considered
stenotic if there was
50% diameter narrowing of a main
coronary artery or any of its major branches. The number of
arteries narrowed was determined by a set algorithm.7
Urgent surgical status was defined as surgery necessary within 1 day
and emergency surgical status as surgery necessary within 1 hour
because of symptoms or hemodynamic instability. The
number of grafts was determined by the number of distal anastomoses. A
postoperative myocardial infarction was determined by the development
of new Q waves. A neurological event was a persistent change in
neurological function, including disorientation persisting for several
days.
Data Analysis
All data were prospectively collected and
entered into a
computerized database. Data are displayed as a percentage or mean±SD
where appropriate. Categorical variables were compared by
2, and continuous variables were
analyzed by ANOVA. Where data are displayed by decade,
P values refer to the total trend in the population by
decade. Long-term survival was determined for the entire population
(in-hospital deaths and survivors) by the Kaplan-Meier
method,8 and correlates of survival were determined by the
Cox proportional hazards method.9 Statistical testing was
performed with BMDP.
| Results |
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The clinical, angiographic, and procedural characteristics in Tables 1
through 3![]()
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were used to determine
the in-hospital mortality. The
univariate and multivariate odds ratios as
well as P values for in-hospital mortality are displayed in
Table 4
. For ejection fraction and age, the odds ratios
refer to an increase of 1 unit, for example, age 62 to 63 years or
ejection fraction from 46% to 47%. Urgent and emergency surgery,
reduced ejection fraction, hypertension, older age, and female sex were
univariate and multivariate correlates. The
univariate and multivariate odds ratios
were similar. Diabetes was a univariate correlate only. For
elective surgery, the mortality was 5.7%; for urgent surgery, 10.9%;
and for emergency surgery, 16.4%.
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Long-term survival; myocardial infarctionfree survival;
freedom from death, myocardial infarction, and a third coronary
surgery; and survival free of myocardial infarction, a third
coronary surgery, and angioplasty are shown as a layered set of
survival curves in Fig 1
. There is an initial dip in the
curves representing in-hospital events; thereafter, the
curves become quite linear. Although survival may seem somewhat
reassuring at 76% at 5 years, it fell to 55% at 10 years. Myocardial
infarc-tion was the other major event. The additional influence of
further revascularization procedures seemed
somewhat less. Nevertheless, by 12 years, few patients were free of
cardiac events. Fig 2
shows the freedom from additional
revascularization procedures, which appear more
prominent on this figure than on Fig 1
because patients may
have had
other events, thereby masking the incidence of additional procedures.
Freedom from a third coronary
revascularization procedure, coronary
angioplasty, and additional revascularization of
either type are shown. Note that additional procedures are at first
unusual, but that after 6 to 8 years, repeat
revascularization becomes more common.
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The clinical, angiographic, and procedural characteristics in Tables 1
through 3![]()
![]()
were used to determine
long-term correlates of mortality.
The univariate and multivariate hazard
ratios as well as P values for long-term mortality are
given in Table 5
. For ejection fraction and age, the
hazard ratios are for an increase of 1 unit. The univariate
and multivariate correlates were older age, reduced
ejection fraction, hypertension, diseased vessels, presence of
diabetes, congestive heart failure, and urgent or emergency surgery
with a strong trend for female sex. The use of the internal mammary
artery was not a correlate of long-term mortality. The hazard ratio
of 1.04 per year of age may also be expressed as 1.49 for each decade
increase in age (95% confidence interval, 1.32 to 1.69). Similarly,
patient characteristics were used to determine correlates of additional
procedures. The only multivariate correlates of
additional procedures were male sex (P=.0072) and younger
age (P=.0076). Men had a hazard ratio of 1.67 (95%
confidence interval, 1.12 to 2.49) for additional procedures, and the
hazard ratio was 1.21 (95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 1.39) for each
decade decrease in age.
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Survival divided by age groups is shown in Fig 3
. There
was little difference between patients under age 50 and between ages 50
and 59. Thereafter, mortality rose significantly. Although few patients
over age 70 were alive after 10 years, survival longer than this for
patients over age 70 undergoing reoperative surgery should not be
expected. Note that patients over age 70 were 9.3 years from their
original surgery and thus by 12 years would be over age 80 and more
than 20 years from their original surgery. Survival, divided by
ejection fraction
50%, 35% to 49%, and <35%, is shown in Fig
4
. Note that the difference between the curves is
largely established in the first 1 to 2 years, and thereafter the
curves continue to separate more slowly. Survival divided by the
presence or absence of hypertension is shown in Fig 5
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Here, the curves are initially close together but splay out and become
more separated over time. Survival divided by vessels diseased is
displayed in Fig 6
. Although the curves do not separate
as cleanly as in several of the other figures, a progression of
increased mortality from single to left main disease may be noted.
Survival divided by the absence and presence of diabetes is
presented in Fig 7
. Similar to the curves for
hypertension, the curves for diabetes splay out over time, so that
survival by 10 to 12 years for patients with diabetes is very poor.
Survival divided by the presence or absence of congestive heart failure
is shown in Fig 8
. These curves separate rapidly but
then fall in parallel, similar to those for ejection fraction but with
less separation. Survival divided by elective, urgent, or emergency
surgery is shown in Fig 9
. The separation is essentially
immediate, reflecting initial in-hospital mortality.
Thereafter, the curves begin to come together, so that by 7 or 8 years
the curves overlap. Survival by sex is displayed in Fig 10
.
Women have somewhat lower survival rates, although
the curves are close.
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| Discussion |
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The in-hospital mortality rate was higher and long-term survival rate was lower than in multiple series of first revascularization procedures. In a recent publication examining long-term outcome from Emory University, the in-hospital mortality was 1.0%, and 5- and 10-year survival rates were 91% and 78%, respectively. Five- and 10-year myocardial infarctionfree survival rates were 83% and 65%, respectively. The patients in that series were younger and had less severe angina, fewer previous myocardial infarctions, less hypertension, less congestive heart failure, less diabetes, less severe coronary disease, and higher ejection fractions than those in the present study. In the randomized portion of CASS, the 5- and 10-year survival rates were 95% and 82% in the surgical arm,10 respectively. The patients in CASS were younger and had less angina and less severe disease. Van Brussel et al11 noted 5- and 10-year survival rates of 94% and 82%, respectively. These patients were also younger and had less severe disease, less diabetes, less hypertension, and less heart failure than those in the present study. Rahimtoola et al12 reported 5- and 10-year survival rates of 88% and 73%, respectively. These patients were also younger and had less diabetes, less hypertension, and fewer previous myocardial infarctions than the patients in this study. Loop et al13 also noted lower long-term mortality rates for first-time surgery and for patients who were younger and more often male and had less severe angina and less severe anatomic disease. Lowrie et al14 noted 5-year survival rates of 80% to 85% and 10-year survival rates of 65% to 70%. The patients were younger and had less severe disease, better left ventricular function, and less diabetes than in this series. Similar results were also noted in the European Cooperative study15 and the VA Cooperative study16 and in results from the Duke University database.17
Compared with a wealth of data concerning first-time coronary surgery, the data on reoperative surgery are more scant. Kirklin and Barratt-Boyes18 noted that in-hospital mortality after coronary surgery is approximately twice that of first surgery. In the CASS registry experience, 9086 patients having a first procedure were compared with 283 patients having a reoperative procedure.19 The mortality and myocardial infarction rates after a first procedure were 3.1% and 6.4% versus 5.3% and 5.8%, respectively, for a reoperative procedure. The patients undergoing reoperation were younger (mean age, 52±9 years in the CASS experience) and had less severe anatomic disease than in the present report. In the largest series, Loop et al20 reported on results in 2509 patients. Mortality ranged from 2% to 5%, and new Q-wave myocardial infarctions ranged from 4% to 8%, with improved results toward the end of the series. For hospital survivors, the 10-year survival rate was 69.3%, and event-free survival was 41.2%. Thus, these patients probably have not had as good a prognosis as first-time surgical patients. In addition, these patients were younger and had less diabetes and less hypertension than those in the present series. In contrast to the present study, Loop et al13 noted improved survival in patients with internal mammary artery grafts, although this was not as important as in their study of first surgeries.
There is an alternative to coronary surgery for at least some patients in the form of interventional procedures in the catheterization laboratory. In a recent series from Emory University of vein graft angioplasty, the in-hospital mortality was 1.2%, Q-wave myocardial infarction rate was 2.2%, and rate of need for emergency coronary surgery was 3.5%.21 Restenosis in vein grafts is probably a more severe problem than in native vessels, and new devices such as atherectomy and stents may lower the rate of restenosis. There are little comparative data on the devices, and the little that there are show little difference in outcome.22 There are little data comparing interventional procedures with reoperative surgery. In a recent preliminary, observational comparison, the long-term results of interventional procedures were superior to those of reoperative surgery, but the selection bias could not be accounted for.23 There are no randomized data and no trial in planning as far as we know. It is not at all certain that the patients treated with interventional procedures are similar in clinical or angiographic characteristics to patients undergoing reoperative surgery. Although the patients undergoing surgery would be expected to be older and to have more severe disease, this may not always be the case, as some patients with very severe disease may be referred to angioplasty as a last-ditch rescue.
How, then, are patients to be cared for after coronary surgery? There certainly are data on increasing incidence of reoperative procedures after a period of years, suggesting that progression of native vessel disease, graft failure, or both accelerate after approximately 8 years.2 24 25 In patients with recurrent symptoms unresponsive to medical therapy, referral for revascularization is reasonable. Deciding how to follow and when to catheterize and then revascularize asymptomatic patients with positive noninvasive testing and angiographic evidence of ischemic potential is much more difficult. The decision must be tempered with the knowledge that these patients have severe disease and will continue to have problems after palliative surgery. Multivariate models such as those developed in the present study may be used to more accurately determine both immediate- and long-term prognosis. Nevertheless, there is no adequate substitute for good comparative studies that will permit the assessment of which patients are needing additional revascularization and of the overlapping patients who are suitable for either catheter-based or surgical procedures. Finally, studies are needed comparing the costs in relation to the clinical outcomes of the various forms of revascularization after coronary surgery.
| References |
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