(Circulation. 1995;92:2178-2182.)
© 1995 American Heart Association, Inc.
Articles |
From the VA Medical Center, West Haven, Conn, and Department of Medicine, Yale University (M.D.E.); the VA Medical Center, Portland, Ore, and Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Oregon Health Sciences University (K.E.J.); the VA Medical Center, Little Rock, Ark, and Department of Neurology, University of Arkansas (S.M.N.); the VA Medical Center, Minneapolis, Minn, and Department of Neurology, University of Minnesota (J.D.); the Department of Neurology, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, Ohio (J.P.B.); the VA Medical Center, Hines, Ill, and Department of Neurology, Loyola University (S.R.G.); the Department of Neurology, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, NH (V.T.); Yale University, New Haven, Conn (M.L.M.); and YaleNew Haven Medical Center, New Haven, Conn (S.L.B.).
Correspondence to Kenneth E. James, PhD, Health Services Research and Development (152), VA Medical Center, 3710 SW US Veterans Hospital Rd, Portland, OR 97201. E-mail james@hsrd.gov
| Abstract |
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Methods and Results This Veterans Affairs cooperative study was a double-blind controlled trial designed primarily to determine the efficacy of warfarin for the prevention of stroke in neurologically normal patients with nonrheumatic atrial fibrillation. It also was designed to evaluate patients with silent cerebral infarction. Computed tomography scans of the head were performed at entry, at the time of any subsequent stroke, and at termination of follow-up on all patients who completed the study without a neurological event. Of 516 evaluable scans performed at entry, 76 (14.7%) had evidence of one or more silent cerebral infarcts. Age (P=.011), a history of hypertension (P=.003), active angina (P=.012), and elevated mean systolic blood pressure (P<.001) were associated with the presence of this finding. Silent cerebral infarction occurred during the study at rates of 1.01% and 1.57% per year for the placebo and warfarin treatment groups, respectively (NS). Silent cerebral infarction at entry was not an independent predictor of later symptomatic stroke, but active angina was a significant predictor; 15% of the placebo-assigned patients with angina developed a stroke compared with 5% of the placebo-assigned patients without angina.
Conclusions Silent cerebral infarction is frequently seen in asymptomatic patients with atrial fibrillation. Age, history of hypertension, active angina, and elevated mean systolic blood pressure were associated with silent infarction at entry. The sample size was too small to determine whether warfarin had an effect on the incidence of silent infarction during the trial. Active angina at baseline was the only significant independent predictor for the later development of symptomatic stroke.
Key Words: cerebral infarction atrial fibrillation tomography
| Introduction |
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| Methods |
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Patients were randomly assigned to receive warfarin or placebo. The goal of warfarin therapy was the maintenance of the patient's prothrombin time ratio within the range of 1.2 to 1.5, corresponding to an International Normalized Ratio of approximately 1.4 to 2.8. All patients were followed for 3 years or until termination of the study. Patients who had a stroke during the study were followed for survival.
The primary end point of the SPINAF study was clinically evident cerebral infarction, defined as a new neurological deficit not attributable to dysfunction of a single cranial nerve, the spinal cord, or the peripheral nervous system. The deficit or some portion thereof had to persist for longer than 12 hours. The first cranial CT scan obtained after onset of the deficit had to have no evidence of intracerebral hemorrhage or tumor.
CT Scan Acquisition and Analysis
Noncontrast CT scans were
obtained from patients at entry to and
termination from the study. A scan was also performed when a patient
had a stroke. All available scans were evaluated after the conclusion
of the study by a committee of six neurologists. Each scan was read by
two neurologists who had no knowledge of the physical condition or
clinical course of the patient, and their consensus interpretation was
recorded. Reading pairs were rotated after every 50 scans to
minimize bias. When a consensus was not reached by the two primary
readers, the scan in question was reviewed and classified by the entire
six-member committee.
Silent cerebral infarction was defined as a defect on the CT scan consistent with a cerebral infarct in a neurologically normal patient. Silent cerebral infarcts were divided into large and small; superficial and deep; and into three vascular territories: anterior (anterior and middle cerebral, and anterior choroidal arteries), posterior (posterior cerebral artery and other branches of the vertebrobasilar system), and watershed (in the border zone vascular distributions between the anterior-middle and middle-posterior cerebral arteries). Assignment of vascular territories was based on previously published CT templates.11 Lucencies of 4.2 cm3 (corresponding to the volume of a sphere of 2.0 cm in diameter) or greater were considered to be large infarcts. This choice was based on the commonly accepted upper limit of diameter for lacunar infarcts, as formulated by Fisher.12 Deep infarcts were defined as involving central cerebral white and gray matter; superficial infarcts as involving cortical and/or adjacent subcortical areas. Enlarged cortical sulci alone were not interpreted as infarcts.
The size of an infarct was estimated from the maximal lesion dimension in centimeters (x axis) times the axis perpendicular to the x axis (y axis) times the number of 1-cm slices (n) in which the infarct appeared. The volume was calculated by the formula
![]() | (1) |
which is based on the formula for the volume of an ellipsoid of principal diameters a, b, and c:
![]() | (2) |
Carotid Ultrasound
Carotid duplex ultrasound studies were
performed on patients
entering the SPINAF trial at 12 of the 16 hospitals. The local hospital
interpretations of these studies were used in this analysis.
Ultrasound equipment and technical procedures were not standardized and
interpretations were not reviewed centrally.
Data Analysis
The data were analyzed by the Veterans Affairs
Cooperative Studies Program Coordinating Center in Palo Alto, Calif.
All analyses were performed on an intent-to-treat
basis. Baseline characteristics of patients with and without silent
cerebral infarction were compared with use of the Student's
t test for continuous variables and
2 for noncontinuous variables.
Ninety-five percent confidence intervals were calculated for
relative risk of silent cerebral infarction using the Taylor series
approximation for the variance of the risk ratio.13
Multivariate logistic regression14 was
used to assess the effect of silent cerebral infarction at entry on the
later occurrence of symptomatic cerebral infarction in the
presence of baseline age, systolic blood pressure, history of
hypertension, history of diabetes, and angina. Entry scans, used to
measure the prevalence of silent cerebral infarction, were excluded
from analysis if acquired more than 30 days after
randomization. Termination scans, for assessing the incidence of silent
cerebral infarction, were excluded if they were obtained more than 90
days after termination or if the matching entry scans were acquired
more than 90 days before randomization.
| Results |
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Location, Size, and Distribution of Silent Infarcts
The
majority, 46 of the 76 abnormal entry scans, had silent
cerebral infarcts that were both small and deeply located, while 40 of
the 76 scans had large or superficial lesions consistent with
an embolic etiology (Table 2
). Note that both of these
groups include scans from 10 patients who had multiple lesions that
were both small and deep as well as large and superficial. Among the
patients who suffered a symptomatic stroke during the
course of the study, 7 of the 9 poststroke scans with visible lesions
showed large, superficial lesions ranging from 6 to 141
cm3.
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Most of the 100 silent infarcts (n=70) from the 76 patients (scans) were in the territory of the middle cerebral artery; 14 were in the cerebral watershed areas, and 11 were in the posterior cerebral artery territory. Four were in the cerebellum, and only one was in the anterior cerebral artery territory.
Risk Factors for Silent Cerebral Infarction at Entry
A
univariate comparison of the baseline
characteristics for patients with and without silent cerebral
infarction at entry was performed (Table 3
). Age
(P=.011), a history of hypertension (P=.003),
active angina (P=.012), and elevated systolic blood
pressure (P<.001) were associated with silent cerebral
infarction. The remainder of the characteristics in Table 3
were not
significantly associated with silent infarction.
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Carotid Doppler Studies
Among the 516 patients with
analyzable scans, 323 patients also
had carotid duplex ultrasound studies performed at entry. Two hundred
eighty of these had normal CT scans, with 10 (4%) having
stenosis of the internal carotid artery measuring greater than
75%. Two (5%) of the 43 patients with silent cerebral infarction had
stenosis of more than 75%. Thus, silent cerebral infarction at
entry did not appear to be associated with the presence of carotid
stenosis.
Incidence of Silent Infarction During the Course of the
Study
Of the 525 patients randomized in SPINAF, 307 had both an
initial
and termination scan available for analysis (Table 1
). There
were 8 new silent cerebral infarcts during the course of the study, 3
in the placebo and 5 in the warfarin treatment groups (1.01% per year
versus 1.57% per year; relative risk, 1.55; 95% confidence interval,
0.40 to 6.11). In five scans, the lesions were small and deep, in two
they were small and superficial, and the lesion in the remaining scan
was small, but its location was not recorded.
Silent Cerebral Infarction as a Risk Factor for Subsequent
Symptomatic Stroke
During the course of the SPINAF study, 23 patients
(19 in the
placebo group and 4 in the warfarin group) had a
symptomatic stroke. Univariate analysis
of the data from the original 525 patients showed that active angina
was associated with the occurrence of symptomatic stroke
(P=.047). A multivariate logistic regression
analysis was performed on the data from the 260 patients with
evaluable scans randomized to placebo using age, systolic blood
pressure, history of hypertension, history of diabetes, active angina,
and silent cerebral infarction as possible predictors of
symptomatic stroke. Active angina was considered as stable
and symptomatic angina present at entry to the study.
Angina was the most significant predictor (P=.017; odds
ratio, 3.34; 95% confidence interval, 1.25 to 8.92). With angina in
the regression model, silent cerebral infarction contributed very
little (P=.472; odds ratio, 1.52; 95% confidence interval,
0.49 to 4.73), as did the other tested variables. Of the 59 placebo
patients with angina, 9 (15.3%) experienced a stroke compared with 10
(5.0%) of the 201 placebo patients without angina
(P=.017).
| Discussion |
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A limitation of this study is the absence of a comparison group matched for baseline characteristics but lacking atrial fibrillation. Thus, while there is some circumstantial evidence that atrial fibrillation is a factor in the occurrence of silent cerebral infarction, a direct link is not conclusively demonstrated by this study.
We found that 46 of 76 patients with silent cerebral infarction (61%) had lesions that were small and located in the deep hemispheric areas and are typically classified as lacunar infarcts. These data are consistent with the distribution of silent infarcts found in other studies.3 4 5 6 7 9 Two of eight studies of atrial fibrillation have reported a predominance of larger and more superficial lesions.2 8 In our study, 40 of 76 patients had lesions that were either large or superficial, which is commonly associated with a cardioembolic pathophysiology. Note, again, that there were 10 patients who had multiple lesions that were both small and deep as well as larger or more superficial. It is important to recognize that the cause of these silent cerebral lesions remains undetermined and that several stroke mechanisms may be present in a particular patient.
Risk Factors Associated With Silent Cerebral
Infarction
In our study we found that increasing age, history of
hypertension, active angina, and elevated systolic blood
pressure were associated with silent cerebral infarction. Evidence of
heart failure and echocardiographically determined left
atrial size were not associated with increasing risk. The SPAF
study4 reported that enlarged left atrial diameter was a
risk factor for silent cerebral infarction, an observation found in one
other study.9 This latter report also included patients
without atrial fibrillation. The associations we found are similar to
those in two other studies.2 6 Our study is the only
one
to identify active angina as a risk factor for silent cerebral
infarction. Other risk factors reported in single studies, including
diabetes7 and claudication,6 may relate to
differences in the populations investigated.
Development of Silent Cerebral Infarction During the
Study
The low incidence of silent cerebral infarction during this
study
is of substantial interest, since this is the first large prospectively
studied cohort under continuous observation. In the warfarin- and
placebo-treated groups combined, 8 patients had silent infarctions
in 616 patient-years of follow-up, for a mean incidence rate of
1.3% per year. Since patients in our study had regular neurological
interviews and examinations, we expect that the possibility of missing
a symptomatic stroke was minimized and that our figures
accurately reflect the true incidence in a patient population under
close scrutiny. Failure to identify minor strokes is likely to be
higher when patients self-report.
Silent Cerebral Infarction as a Marker of Subsequent
Stroke
From a clinical standpoint, we expected cerebral infarction to
be
a predictor for the occurrence of symptomatic stroke.
Indeed, others have found that patients with atrial fibrillation and a
previous minor stroke are at a higher risk for the development of a
second stroke.15 16 In our study, only active angina
was
predictive of symptomatic stroke. The presence of silent cerebral
infarction did not significantly increase the probability of such an
event. Thus, CT scans appear to be of questionable value in defining a
group of patients who are at higher risk for developing a subsequent
symptomatic event.
Summary
A specific association of silent cerebral infarction
with
diabetes, peripheral vascular disease, and carotid disease
was not observed in this study. Silent cerebral infarction appears to
have no independent benefit as a predictor of symptomatic
stroke in a population of patients with atrial fibrillation. This study
does not support the use of cerebral CT scanning in the evaluation of
neurologically asymptomatic patients with atrial
fibrillation.
| Appendix |
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Chairman's Office, West Haven
S.L. Bridgers, MD; M.D.
Ezekowitz, MD, PhD; E. Hanahan; E.S.
Teeple; S. Klepper; M.L. Meyer, BS.
Clinical Research Pharmacy, Albuquerque
C.L. Colling, RPh,
MS; J. Boren; M.R. Sather, RPh, MS.
Statistical Coordinating Center, Palo Alto
K.E. James, PhD;
H. Krause-Steinrauf, MS; B. Watanaubi, MS; R.
Yen, MS; R. Yezzi; R. Fischer; P. Lavori, PhD.
Executive Committee
S.L. Bridgers, MD; C.L. Colling, RPh, MS;
M.D. Ezekowitz, MD,
PhD; C.C. Gornick, MD; K.E. James, PhD; J.F. Kurtzke, MD (ad hoc); S.M.
Nazarian, MD; F.R. Rickles, MD; R. Shabetai, MD.
Data Monitoring Board
M. Dunn, MD (Chair); L.R. Caplan, MD;
W.M. O'Fallon, PhD; D.A.
Triplett, MD.
End Points Committee
S. Jonas, MD (Chair); L. Reik, Jr, MD;
B. Duckrow, MD; J.
Sacco, MD; J. Rutherford, MD.
CT Scan Committee
S.M. Nazarian, MD (Chair); S.L. Bridgers,
MD; J.P.
Broderick, MD; J. Davenport, MD; S.R. Gupta, MD; V. Thadani, MD.
| Acknowledgments |
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| Footnotes |
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Received February 14, 1995; revision received May 15, 1995; accepted May 22, 1995.
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