(Circulation. 2007;115:846-854.)
© 2007 American Heart Association, Inc.
Cardiovascular Disease in Women |
From the Department of Medicine, George Washington University, Washington, DC (J.H.); Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina School of Public Health, Chapel Hill (G.H.); Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Wash (H.R.); Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, University of California at San Diego, San Diego (M.A.); Departments of Medicine (N.C.D., P.G.) and Preventive Medicine (P.G.), Northwestern University, Chicago, Ill; Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle (S.R.H.); Department of Preventive Medicine, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis (K.C.J.); Division of Preventive Medicine, Brigham and Womens Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Mass (J.E.M.); Kaiser Permanente, Oakland, Calif (S.S.); and University at Buffalo School of Public Health and Health Professions, Buffalo, NY (M.T.).
Correspondence to Judith Hsia, MD, 2150 Pennsylvania Ave, NW No. 4414, Washington, DC 20037. E-mail jhsia{at}mfa.gwu.edu
Received November 2, 2006; accepted December 14, 2006.
| Abstract |
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Methods and Results We randomized 36 282 postmenopausal women 50 to 79 years of age at 40 clinical sites to calcium carbonate 500 mg with vitamin D 200 IU twice daily or to placebo. Cardiovascular disease was a prespecified secondary efficacy outcome. During 7 years of follow-up, myocardial infarction or coronary heart disease death was confirmed for 499 women assigned to calcium/vitamin D and 475 women assigned to placebo (hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.92 to 1.18). Stroke was confirmed among 362 women assigned to calcium/vitamin D and 377 assigned to placebo (hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 1.10). In subgroup analyses, women with higher total calcium intake (diet plus supplements) at baseline were not at higher risk for coronary events (P=0.91 for interaction) or stroke (P=0.14 for interaction) if assigned to active calcium/vitamin D.
Conclusions Calcium/vitamin D supplementation neither increased nor decreased coronary or cerebrovascular risk in generally healthy postmenopausal women over a 7-year use period.
Key Words: calcium cerebrovascular disorders coronary disease stroke women
| Introduction |
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Editorial p 827
Clinical Perspective p 854
We randomized 36 282 postmenopausal women to calcium plus vitamin D or to placebo in a fracture trial and report here the impact of 7 years of supplementation on cardiovascular outcomes, including time trends and analyses of subgroups.
| Methods |
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Clinical Outcomes
Weight, blood pressure, and waist circumference were recorded annually. Blood samples were collected at baseline, ie, at the time of enrollment into the hormone therapy and/or dietary modification trials, from all participants; in a random 6% sample, blood samples also were collected 1 and 3 years later.22
Participants reported emergency room visits, overnight hospital stays, and outpatient coronary revascularization procedures semiannually. Medical records for all overnight hospitalizations and outpatient coronary revascularization procedures were scrutinized for potential outcomes of interest. Centrally trained physician-adjudicators classified outcomes on the basis of medical record review. Myocardial infarction was categorized through the use of an algorithm that included symptoms, ECG findings, and cardiac enzymes.23 Confirmed angina required hospitalization for angina with confirmatory stress test or obstructive coronary disease by angiography.24 Stroke required rapid onset of a persistent neurological deficit not due to trauma, tumor, infection, or other cause25; strokes were coded as "other" if procedure related or if the adjudicator could not classify the event as hemorrhagic or ischemic. All deaths were centrally adjudicated; other outcomes were adjudicated on the basis of hospital record review by centrally trained, local adjudicators blinded to treatment assignment. Composite outcomes were defined during development of the analytical plan.
Statistical Methods
Statistical methods have been described.20,21 In brief, hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated from Cox proportional-hazards models stratified by age, prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline, and randomization status in the hormone and dietary modification trials. Subgroup analyses were planned a priori. Subgroup analyses were stratified by age, prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline, and randomization status in the hormone and dietary modification trials. Consistency of treatment effects among subgroups was assessed by formal tests of interaction; tests for linear trend were used when appropriate. Nineteen subgroups were evaluated for coronary heart disease (CHD) and for stroke; subgroup results should be interpreted with caution because 1 significant finding would be expected by chance for each outcome based on a 0.05 nominal level of statistical significance. All reported probability values are 2 sided. Analyses were carried out by the coordinating center statistics unit using the SAS System for Windows, version 9 (SAS Institute, Cary, NC).
The authors had full access to and take responsibility for the integrity of the data. All authors have read and agree to the manuscript as written.
| Results |
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Intermediate Biomarkers and Risk Factors for CHD
Although blood samples were collected on the entire cohort, bioassays were performed in only a 6% random sample. At baseline, total cholesterol was 5.64 mmol/L, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was 3.28 mmol/L, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was 1.54 mmol/L, triglycerides were 1.81 mmol/L, glucose was 5.49 mmol/L, and insulin was 11.4 µIU/mL. Differences between mean percent change in the intervention group and mean percent change in the control group are shown from baseline to year 2 after randomization (Figure 1). Percent change from baseline differed significantly between treatment groups for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (P=0.02), waist circumference and weight (P=0.03 for both), systolic blood pressure (P=0.01), and diastolic blood pressure (P<0.01).
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Clinical Cardiovascular Outcomes
Myocardial infarction or CHD death was confirmed in 499 women assigned to active calcium/vitamin D and 475 assigned to placebo (hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.92 to 1.18). Stroke was confirmed in 362 women assigned to calcium/vitamin D and 377 assigned to placebo (hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.82 to 1.10; Figure 2). Among women taking at least 80% of study medication, the hazard ratio for myocardial infarction/CHD death was 1.05 (95% CI, 0.88 to 1.25) and for stroke was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.79 to 1.20) (data not shown). Risks of coronary revascularization, confirmed angina, hospitalized heart failure, transient ischemic attack, and composite outcomes also were similar in the 2 treatment groups (Table 2).
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Temporal Trends
Hazard ratios with nominal 95% CIs for myocardial infarction/CHD death at 1-year intervals of follow-up were as follows: year 1, 1.13 (95% CI, 0.79 to 1.61); year 2, 1.10 (95% CI, 0.75 to 1.61); year 3, 1.00 (95% CI, 0.69 to 1.46); year 4, 0.92 (95% CI, 0.66 to 1.28); year 5, 1.00 (95% CI, 0.72 to 1.39), year 6, 1.11 (95% CI, 0.81 to 1.51), and year
7, 1.07 (95% CI, 0.80 to 1.42). The z score for trend, based on Cox proportional-hazards modeling with time-dependent treatment effects, was 0.22 (P=0.82), indicating no significant trend in risk over time.
Hazard ratios with 95% CIs for stroke were as follows: year 1, 1.09 (95% CI, 0.69 to 1.72); year 2, 0.62 (95% CI, 0.41 to 0.94); year 3, 1.22 (95% CI, 0.82 to 1.82); year 4, 1.07 (95% CI, 0.70 to 1.65); year 5, 1.01 (95% CI, 0.69 to 1.47), year 6, 0.71(95% CI, 0.50 to 1.01), and year
7, 1.11 (95% CI, 0.81 to 1.52). The z score was 0.55 (P=0.58).
Trends by Age
Cumulative hazard ratios for myocardial infarction/CHD death and for stroke were evaluated by age decade. For women 50 to 59, 60 to 69, and 70 to 79 years of age at baseline, hazard ratios with 95% CIs for CHD were 0.94 (95% CI, 0.70 to 1.27), 1.08 (95% CI, 0.90 to 1.30), and 1.05 (95% CI, 0.85 to 1.30), respectively (P=0.53 for interaction). Hazard ratios with 95% CIs for stroke were 0.90 (95% CI, 0.62 to 1.32), 0.97 (95% CI, 0.78 to 1.20), and 0.96 (95% CI, 0.76 to 1.20), respectively (P=0.72 for interaction).
Additional Subgroup Analyses
We evaluated several demographic and clinical characteristics to determine whether other subgroups of women were at lower or higher risk for myocardial infarction/CHD death with calcium/vitamin D (Figure 3) or for stroke (Figure 4). The hazard ratios for CHD (P=0.91 for interaction) and stroke (P=0.14 for interaction) did not differ by total calcium intake (dietary plus supplemental) at baseline. Similarly, hazard ratios did not differ by vitamin D intake at baseline (P=0.45 for interaction for CHD and P=0.12 for stroke). Hazard ratios also did not differ by ethnicity, although numbers of events were small among Hispanic, American Indian, and Asian women (P=0.54 for interaction for CHD and P=0.63 for stroke).
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CHD risk with active calcium/vitamin D was inversely related to body mass index (P=0.04 for interaction); ie, women with higher body mass index were at lower CHD risk with active calcium/vitamin D supplementation, whereas those with lower body mass index were at higher CHD risk. Stroke risk with active calcium/vitamin D was lower among women with high cholesterol and those taking statins at baseline (P=0.04 for interaction for both). Stroke risk with active calcium/vitamin D was inversely related to the number of CHD risk factors; ie, women with fewer risk factors were at higher stroke risk with calcium/vitamin D supplementation (P=0.02 for interaction).
| Discussion |
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Possible explanations of this null finding include the following: (1) Background calcium use impaired our ability to identify a treatment effect; (2) the dose of vitamin D was inadequate; (3) poor adherence to study medication blunted any treatment effect; (4) concurrent postmenopausal hormone therapy interfered with treatment effects; (5) the trial was designed to evaluate the effects of calcium/vitamin D supplementation on fracture, not cardiovascular disease; or (6) calcium and vitamin D do not, in fact, affect cardiovascular risk.
A limitation of the trial was that women were allowed to continue their own calcium supplements because it would have been unethical to prohibit concurrent calcium use in a long-term, placebo-controlled trial. Baseline calcium consumption (diet plus supplements) was balanced between treatment groups, and no significant interaction between dietary or total calcium consumption at baseline and randomized treatment assignment was observed for either CHD or stroke.
Baseline vitamin D consumption (diet plus supplements) and regional solar irradiance21 also were balanced between treatment groups. Parathyroid hormone levels are maximally suppressed at 25-hydroxy vitamin D blood levels >75 nmol/L (30 ng/mL).27 In our trial, despite consuming 365 IU vitamin D daily (supplements plus dietary vitamin D) at baseline, only 13% of women with incident fractures (n=1589) and 15% of matched controls had serum levels >75 nmol/L, consistent with the current view that 800 to 1000 IU daily may be needed to achieve optimal serum vitamin D levels.28 Women assigned to active calcium/vitamin D supplementation would have been taking almost 800 IU daily, which may still have been insufficient. Nonetheless, women with higher vitamin D consumption at baseline were not at higher or lower risk for CHD or stroke if assigned to active calcium/vitamin D. Low vitamin D levels have been associated with acute stroke29; because we measured serum vitamin D levels in fracture cases and controls, not stroke cases, we are not able to confirm this association.
At the end of the trial (mean follow-up, 7 years), 76% of participants were taking some study pills, and 59% were taking
80% of their study medication. Calcium/vitamin D supplementation did not alter CHD or stroke risk in sensitivity analyses, in which women were censored when they became nonadherent, reducing the likelihood that adherence affected study results. Use of postmenopausal hormone therapy, which increases the risk of stroke25 and CHD,30 was balanced in the treatment groups. Neither CHD nor stroke risk differed with calcium/vitamin D supplementation among women assigned to active hormone therapy in the randomized hormone trials, making it unlikely that postmenopausal hormone use affected study results.
Another limitation of our analysis is that this trial was designed to evaluate the effect of intervention on fracture, not cardiovascular disease. In fact, the number of myocardial infarctions/CHD deaths (n=974) and strokes (n=739) was greater than the number of hip fractures (n=374), so a reasonable treatment effect should have been readily detectable. Overall, the most likely explanation for our findings is that calcium/vitamin D supplementation did not modulate CHD or stroke risk.
Calcium and vitamin D had a mixture of favorable and unfavorable effects on intermediate outcomes. Systolic pressure rose 1.1±12.4% among calcium/vitamin D recipients during the 2 years after randomization and 0.7±12.4% among placebo recipients (P=0.01 for the treatment group difference in percent change from baseline to year 2). Diastolic pressure fell 0.2±12.4% in the active treatment group and 0.6±12.4% in the placebo group (P=0.007). These findings contrast with the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, in which dietary calcium consumption was inversely associated with an age-related increase in systolic blood pressure.31 Because of adjustments in concurrent medication dosage, we cannot be sure that the treatment group differences in our trial are due solely to calcium/vitamin D supplementation. Furthermore, in later years of the trial, the changes in blood pressure from baseline no longer differed between treatment groups.
Weight increased in both treatment groups during the 2 years after randomization (1.4±10.5% versus 1.7±12.0%), as did waist circumference (1.5±7.6% versus 1.8±8.4%), but these increases were smaller among women assigned to active calcium/vitamin D (P=0.03 for both). The relationship between weight and calcium/vitamin D consumption in other reports has been inconsistent,32,33 but women taking calcium supplements gained less weight than nonusers in a recent, large, 10-year epidemiological study.34
In both treatment groups, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol rose in the 6% of participants with measured biomarkers, but the increase was smaller among women assigned to active calcium/vitamin D (0.2±20.9% versus 2.6±20.7%; P=0.02). In a small 12-week trial, calcium/vitamin D supplementation had no effect on low-density lipoprotein cholesterol.35 The modest difference seen in our trial may reflect changes in weight over the 2 years or adjustments in concomitant medications and cannot be definitively attributed to calcium/vitamin D supplementation.
We found several subgroups of women with lower hazard ratios for CHD or stroke with calcium/vitamin D supplementation. Women with higher body mass index appeared to be at lower risk for CHD with calcium/vitamin D supplementation (P=0.04 for interaction), but in view of the number of subgroups examined, this finding may be due to chance.
We also found that women with more coronary risk factors were at lower risk for stroke with calcium/vitamin D supplementation (P=0.02 for interaction) but think this may be due to chance as well, particularly because the number of women with
3 risk factors was very small. On the other hand, women with self-reported hypercholesterolemia and those who used statins were at lower risk for stroke if assigned to active calcium/vitamin D (P=0.04 for interaction for both). The clinical link between high cholesterol and statin use and the proposed, albeit controversial, effect of statin use on bone enhance the plausibility of this interaction.
Statins increase new bone formation in vitro and enhance trabecular bone formation in rodents36 through blockade of the mevalonate pathway.37 In women, as opposed to rodents, statins had no effect on markers of bone turnover,38 bone density, fracture risk,39 or progression of coronary calcification40; thus, the relationship between statin use and fracture risk remains controversial. Overall, the relationship between consumption of calcium/vitamin D supplements and statin use remains quite unclear with regard to cardiovascular disease risk. Another placebo-controlled trial the size and duration of the Womens Health Initiative is unlikely to be undertaken, although it is possible that trials of bisphosphonates or other agents may shed some light. Populations in those trials are not at particularly high risk for cardiovascular disease, however, so the number of atherosclerotic events may prove inadequate.
Calcium and vitamin D supplementation did not increase the risk for myocardial infarction, CHD death, stroke, coronary revascularization, hospitalized angina, heart failure, or transient ischemic attack. Thus, women taking these supplements need not fear adverse cardiovascular consequences while protecting their bone health.
| Acknowledgments |
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The Womens Health Initiative program is funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, United States Department of Health and Human Services.
Disclosures
Dr Hsia received a research grant from GlaxoSmithKline. The other authors report no conflicts.
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| Footnotes |
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The online-only Data Supplement, consisting of a list of investigators, is available with this article at http://circ.ahajournals.org/cgi/content/full/CIRCULATIONAHA.106.673491/DC1.
Guest Editor for this article was Robert H. Eckel, MD.
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J. J. Hsu, Y. Tintut, and L. L. Demer Vitamin D and Osteogenic Differentiation in the Artery Wall Clin. J. Am. Soc. Nephrol., September 1, 2008; 3(5): 1542 - 1547. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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J. Hsia, J. D. Otvos, J. E. Rossouw, L. Wu, S. Wassertheil-Smoller, S. L. Hendrix, J. G. Robinson, B. Lund, L. H. Kuller, and for the Women's Health Initiative Research Group Lipoprotein Particle Concentrations May Explain the Absence of Coronary Protection in the Women's Health Initiative Hormone Trials Arterioscler. Thromb. Vasc. Biol., September 1, 2008; 28(9): 1666 - 1671. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M. L. Melamed, E. D. Michos, W. Post, and B. Astor 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Levels and the Risk of Mortality in the General Population Arch Intern Med, August 11, 2008; 168(15): 1629 - 1637. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M. D Witham More evidence is needed before general supplementation BMJ, June 28, 2008; 336(7659): 1451 - 1451. [Full Text] [PDF] |
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E. Giovannucci, Y. Liu, B. W. Hollis, and E. B. Rimm 25-Hydroxyvitamin D and Risk of Myocardial Infarction in Men: A Prospective Study Arch Intern Med, June 9, 2008; 168(11): 1174 - 1180. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S. C. Larsson, M. J. Virtanen, M. Mars, S. Mannisto, P. Pietinen, D. Albanes, and J. Virtamo Magnesium, Calcium, Potassium, and Sodium Intakes and Risk of Stroke in Male Smokers Arch Intern Med, March 10, 2008; 168(5): 459 - 465. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S. Brown Combined hormone therapy 'increases risk of lobular breast cancer after just three years of use' Menopause Int, March 1, 2008; 14(1): 2 - 4. [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M. Rees, J. Stevenson, and on behalf of the British Menopause Society Council Primary prevention of coronary heart disease in women Menopause Int, March 1, 2008; 14(1): 40 - 45. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M. J Bolland, P A. Barber, R. N Doughty, B. Mason, A. Horne, R. Ames, G. D Gamble, A. Grey, and I. R Reid Vascular events in healthy older women receiving calcium supplementation: randomised controlled trial BMJ, February 2, 2008; 336(7638): 262 - 266. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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G. Howard and V. Feigin Advances in Population Studies 2007 Stroke, February 1, 2008; 39(2): 283 - 285. [Full Text] [PDF] |
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T. J. Wang, M. J. Pencina, S. L. Booth, P. F. Jacques, E. Ingelsson, K. Lanier, E. J. Benjamin, R. B. D'Agostino, M. Wolf, and R. S. Vasan Vitamin D Deficiency and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Circulation, January 29, 2008; 117(4): 503 - 511. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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R. Lehman Evidently... Evid. Based Med., August 1, 2007; 12(4): 103 - 103. [Full Text] [PDF] |
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Other articles noted Evid. Based Med., August 1, 2007; 12(4): 127 - 128. [Full Text] [PDF] |
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A. Zittermann, S. S. Schleithoff, and R. Koerfer Letter by Zitterman et al Regarding Article, "Calcium/Vitamin D Supplementation and Cardiovascular Events" Circulation, July 17, 2007; 116(3): e85 - e85. [Full Text] [PDF] |
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D. E. Wallis and S. Penckofer Letter by Wallis and Penckofer Regarding Article, "Calcium/Vitamin D Supplementation and Cardiovascular Events" Circulation, July 17, 2007; 116(3): e86 - e86. [Full Text] [PDF] |
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E. D. Michos and R. S. Blumenthal Vitamin D Supplementation and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Circulation, February 20, 2007; 115(7): 827 - 828. [Full Text] [PDF] |
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