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Circulation. 2002;105:2836-2844
Published online before print May 13, 2002, doi: 10.1161/01.CIR.0000018653.19696.01
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(Circulation. 2002;105:2836.)
© 2002 American Heart Association, Inc.


Clinical Investigation and Reports

Meta-Analysis of Wine and Beer Consumption in Relation to Vascular Risk

Augusto Di Castelnuovo, MS; Serenella Rotondo, MS; Licia Iacoviello, MD, PhD; Maria Benedetta Donati, MD, PhD; Giovanni de Gaetano, MD, PhD

From the Department of Vascular Medicine and Pharmacology, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri, Consorzio Mario Negri Sud, Santa Maria Imbaro, Italy, and the Center for High Technology Research and Education in Biomedical Sciences, Catholic University, Campobasso, Italy (G.d.G.). Dr Donati is presently affiliated with the Center for High Technology Research and Education in Biomedical Sciences, Catholic University, Campobasso, Italy.

Correspondence to Licia Iacoviello, Consorzio Mario Negri Sud, Via Nazionale 66030, Santa Maria Imbaro, Italy. E-mail iaco{at}cmns.mnegri.it


*    Abstract
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Background Many epidemiological studies have evaluated whether different alcoholic beverages protect against cardiovascular disease. We performed a meta-analysis of 26 studies on the relationship between wine or beer consumption and vascular risk.

Methods and Results General variance-based method and fitting models were applied to pooled data derived from 26 studies that gave a quantitative estimation of the vascular risk associated with either beverage consumption. From 13 studies involving 209 418 persons, the relative risk of vascular disease associated with wine intake was 0.68 (95% confidence interval, 0.59 to 0.77) relative to nondrinkers. There was strong evidence from 10 studies involving 176 042 persons to support a J-shaped relationship between different amounts of wine intake and vascular risk. A statistically significant inverse association was found up to a daily intake of 150 mL of wine. The overall relative risk of moderate beer consumption, which was measured in 15 studies involving 208 036 persons, was 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.70 to 0.86). However, no significant relationship between different amounts of beer intake and vascular risk was found after meta-analyzing 7 studies involving 136 382 persons.

Conclusions These findings show evidence of a significant inverse association between light-to-moderate wine consumption and vascular risk. A similar, although smaller association was also apparent in beer consumption studies. The latter finding, however, is difficult to interpret because no meaningful relationship could be found between different amounts of beer intake and vascular risk.


Key Words: cardiovascular diseases • wine • beer • meta-analysis


*    Introduction
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An inverse association between moderate alcohol consumption and vascular risk has been shown in many epidemiological studies.16 All-cause mortality as a function of alcohol use has been depicted as a J-shaped curve,68 reflecting a lower risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) at moderate consumption and an increased risk of certain cancers and cirrhosis at higher amounts.1,69 After wine intake was suggested as a possible explanation for the lower than expected CHD mortality rates in France,10 many studies have dealt with the question of whether different alcoholic beverages are equivalent in their ability to protect against CHD or if a specific beverage might offer a greater protection, 24 but data are inconclusive.1,3,11,12 A recent advisory from the American Heart Association13 concluded that the usual standards to recommend alcohol consumption as a CHD prevention approach are not met and that wine is indistinguishable from other types of alcoholic beverages. These conclusions have been challenged.1416

See p 2806

We did a systematic review of the literature and a meta-analysis of selected studies to evaluate the relationship between wine and beer consumption and vascular risk. We also tried to give a quantitative estimate of this relationship.


*    Methods
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Search Strategy
First, a PUBMED search (http://www4.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/PubMed) together with an assessment of the references of published studies was conducted until September 2001 to identify studies evaluating the relationship between alcohol consumption and vascular risk. More than 80 publications were identified. Next, publications reporting risks specific for wine and/or beer intake were selected, and 30 studies were identified.1746 Some were multiple reports from the same cohort.20,43,44 One study46 was excluded because neither confidence intervals (CIs) nor precise probability values were reported. A total of 26 reports were identified for the meta-analysis. Two separate meta-analyses were conducted: the first used the 23 studies reporting data for wine,1731,3441 and the second used the 22 studies reporting data for beer.1727,3039,42 Finally, the studies were divided into 2 groups. The first group included studies that considered only a category of risk (drinkers versus nondrinkers), and the second was formed by studies that reported "trend" analyses of risk, ie, that considered more than one category of wine (beer) intake ("dose-response" meta-analysis).

Data Extraction
Some studies17,20,29,31,32,34,39,40 had not taken the intake of different types of alcoholic beverages into account (type A), whereas in others (type B) the bias of combined drinking of different alcoholic beverages in the same population was either formally excluded using drinkers of only a specific type of beverages2125,27,41,42 or was taken into account in multivariate analyses of risk.18,19,26,28,30,33,3537 In studies reporting more than one clinical end point, results on combined (fatal and nonfatal) events and on CHD with respect to other vascular events were used. Relative risks were extracted as a measure of the relation between vascular events and wine or beer consumption (whatever the amount consumed in drinkers versus nondrinkers meta-analysis and for each specific consumption category in the dose-response meta-analysis). Whenever possible, the amount of a "drink" (mL/d) was taken as quantified by each author (as it occurred in all beer studies); otherwise, to allow meaningful comparisons among different categorizations of wine intake, a "drink" was considered equivalent to 130 mL of wine. If not otherwise reported in the study, it was assumed that wine contains 12% and beer 6% ethanol. Other sources of heterogeneity in the methodological quality of the studies were taken into account by performing sensitivity analysis,47,48 and prespecified subgroups were considered according to type of cohort or event in case group, sex, adjustment for different types of alcoholic beverages or for indicators of social class level, presence of ex-drinkers or light drinkers in the reference group, and use of the same reference group for both wine and beer.

Statistical Analyses
In the drinkers versus nondrinkers meta-analysis, data were combined using the general variance-based method49 that requires information on the relative risks (RR) or odds ratios estimate and their 95% CIs for each study. When no CIs were presented, they were calculated by transforming probability values (2 studies).17,34 The 95% CIs were used to assess the variance and the relative weight of each study. Adjusted RR, when available, was preferred. Publication bias was tested using funnel plot asymmetry.50 Results from subgroup analyses were reported with 99% CI to account for multiple comparisons. Data from studies reporting trend analysis were pooled with a weighted, least-squares regression model.51 In this method, the natural logarithm of the adjusted RR of vascular disease was regressed as a function of beverage intake. Midpoints of consumption categories were used for calculations. For open-ended, high-intake categories, the midpoint of the category was estimated to be 20% greater than the lower boundary specified by the original investigators.51 Study effect was modeled with indicator variables. This approach may be extended to fit a J-shaped trend, including linear and quadratic terms. The full model is as follows: log (RR)={gamma}ixstudyi1x(beverage dose)+ß2x(square of beverage dose)+error. Statistical analyses were performed using the SAS package (version 8.2 for Windows).52


*    Results
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Wine
Drinkers Versus Nondrinkers Meta-Analysis
Thirteen studies on the association between wine intake and vascular risk (11 on CHD and 2 on cerebrovascular disease [CVD]) involved 201 308 persons (Table 1). Overall RR of drinkers with respect to nondrinkers was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.77; Figure 1). No heterogeneity was observed (P=0.10). Similar findings were obtained in prospective or case-control studies. Test for sample-size bias failed to show a funnel plot asymmetry (P=0.56). An extensive sensitivity analysis was performed (Table 2). The inverse association of wine with vascular risk remained statistically significant in pooling studies where either CHD or CVD were the only events considered or that separately considered either nonfatal vascular events or cardiovascular mortality. The RR of wine drinkers was also significantly reduced in studies that formally excluded ex-drinkers17,20,21,22,23 or "light or occasional" drinkers18,19,2229 from the reference group or that had adjusted for different types of alcoholic beverages or for indicators of social class level1927,29 or compared both wine and beer drinking groups with the same reference group.1820,2227 Six studies17,19,20,21,28,29 were conducted on men only, and meta-analysis showed a RR of 0.87 compared with a RR of 0.53 in a pool of the other studies that were conducted on both sexes.


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Table 1. Characteristics of the Studies Included in the Drinkers vs Nondrinkers Meta-Analyses



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Figure 1. Odds ratios for vascular disease comparing wine intake versus no wine intake. Black squares indicate the odds ratio in each study, with the square sizes inversely proportional to the standard error of the odds ratio. Horizontal lines represent the 95% CI. The combined odds ratios are indicated by gray squares for subtotals and by a white square for grand total. The dashed vertical line shows the pooled estimate.


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Table 2. Subgroup Analysis Using Studies Included in the Drinkers vs Nondrinkers Meta-Analyses

Dose-Response Meta-Analysis
Ten studies reported trend analysis of the association between different categories of wine intake and vascular risk (7 on CHD and 3 on CVD) involving 176 042 persons (Table 3). Dose-response curves (RRs at different amounts of wine intake) for each study are reported in Figure 2. The best fitting model includes a linear and a quadratic term and was used to construct an average dose-response curve. The complex relationship found was interpreted as a J-shaped curve because, after an initial progressive decrease in the vascular risk by increasing amounts of wine, the curve reaches a plateau at higher intake and tends to revert at the highest amounts explored. When only the 7 prospective studies were considered, the fitting of the quadratic model considerably improved, and this was used to construct the average dose-response curve in Figure 3. A maximum reduction was predicted at 750 mL/day, but statistical significance was only reached up to the amount of 150 mL/day. In subgroup analysis, studies considering CHD or CVD or cardiovascular mortality as separate end points showed similar J-shaped curves that did not reach statistical significance.


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Table 3. Characteristics of the Studies Included in the Dose-Response Meta-Analyses



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Figure 2. RRs or odds ratios for different categories of wine intake (dose-response curves), as reported by the original investigators. The black line indicates the predicted model using data from all studies. Considering all the studies, the best-fitting model was a quadratic model (R2=0.42 versus R2=0.32 for the linear model with a positive linear term; P=0.76); it included a negative linear term (ß1=-7.1±4.1x10-4; P=0.10) and a quadratic term (ß2=0.0047±0.0024x 10-4; P=0.061).



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Figure 3. Best-fitting model for wine effect (R2=0.54 versus R2=0.27 for the linear model with a positive linear term; P=0.34), using dose-response curves in 7 prospective studies. Parameters of the model were ß1=-9.9±4.4x10-4 (P=0.042) and ß2=0.0067±0.0023x10-4 (P=0.013). The best-fitting model using data from the 3 case-control studies was a quadratic model that was not statistically significant with a positive linear term (P=0.16) and a negative quadratic term (P=0.091). Horizontal lines represent the 95% CI.

Beer
Drinkers Versus Nondrinkers Meta-Analysis
Fifteen studies on the association between beer intake and vascular risk (13 on CHD and 2 on CVD) involved 208 096 persons (Table 1). Overall RR reduction in favor of beer drinkers was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.70 to 0.86; Figure 4). No heterogeneity (P=0.82) or funnel plot asymmetry (P=0.90) was observed. Similar results were observed in prospective and case-control studies and when studies in which CHD or nonfatal vascular events were considered separately. Significant results were also obtained by pooling studies that had adjusted for different types of alcoholic beverages or for indicators of social class or excluded ex-drinkers17,20,21,22,23 or light or occasional drinkers18,19,2227,3032 from the reference groups. The RR of beer drinkers was lower in the studies that included both sexes than in those with only men; both results were statistically significant.



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Figure 4. Odds ratios for vascular disease comparing beer intake versus no beer intake. Styled as Figure 1.

Dose-Response Meta-Analysis
Seven studies reported trend analysis of the association between different categories of beer intake and vascular risk (5 on CHD and 2 on CVD); they involved 136 382 persons (Table 3). Dose-response curves for each study are reported in Figure 5. Both a linear and a quadratic model failed to show any significant relationship between different amounts of beer intake and vascular risk (Figure 5) when considering either all studies or subgroups. The apparent continuously decreasing risk with increasing beer consumption was not statistically significant at any amount of beer, eg, at 750 mL of daily beer intake, the predicted reduction of risk was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.57 to 1.33).



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Figure 5. RRs or odds ratios for different categories of beer intake (dose-response curves). The black line indicates the predicted model using data from all studies. Considering all the studies, the best-fitting model was not statistically significant (R2=0.64) including a negative linear term (ß1=-1.8±2.9x10-4; P=0.54); the inclusion of a quadratic term did not improve the fit. In prospective studies ß1=-1.0±4.3x10-4 (P=0.83).


*    Discussion
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Epidemiological studies have suggested that mortality and CHD are lower for people who drink low-to-moderate amounts of alcohol than for those who do not drink or who drink heavily.111,53 Evidence obtained from this meta-analysis indicates an average significant reduction of 32% of overall vascular risk associated with drinking wine. Not only were nonfatal vascular end points significantly reduced in wine drinkers, but so was cardiovascular mortality. In studies with only men, the protection offered by wine was surprisingly small (13%) and not significant, in contrast with studies enrolling both sexes (47%). Whether women are more susceptible to the benefit of wine or if they are more likely to drink lower amounts, thus taking its maximal advantage,1,51,54 remains to be established. In relation to the reported association between moderate alcohol consumption and increased risk of breast cancer,51 our finding suggests that the overall effect of moderate wine intake on women’s health may actually be favorable. In agreement with the relation between alcohol intake and all-cause mortality previously reported,3,69 we observed a J-shaped relationship between wine intake and vascular risk suggesting that light-to-moderate wine drinkers have lower vascular risk than either heavier drinkers or nondrinkers.

Beer drinking was also associated with a reduced risk of vascular events, although at an extent lower than that observed with wine. A significant inverse association was still apparent when only CHD was considered but, unlike with wine, it did not reach statistical significance when CVD events or cardiovascular mortality were separately evaluated, likely due to the small number of available studies. Risk reduction connected with beer drinking was smaller but, unlike wine, still significant in studies in which only men were included. This suggests that women might be particularly responsive to alcohol itself rather than to the nonalcoholic components11 of these beverages. The most important difference between wine and beer consumption was observed in the meta-analysis of studies reporting trend analysis. In contrast with wine, the fitted models failed to show any significant relationship between different amounts of beer intake and vascular risk, even when different subgroups were analyzed. Thus, the inverse association between beer consumption and vascular risk observed in the drinkers versus nondrinkers meta-analysis should be interpreted with caution.

Strength and Potential Limitations of This Meta-Analysis
The results of any meta-analysis, especially in nonexperimental epidemiology, may be invalid due to publication bias or confounding effect.1 This was not the case here, because no sample size bias could be shown by funnel plot, nor were the results affected by any of the adjustments considered. Self-reported wine or beer consumption is thought to be inaccurate. Underreporting on wine or beer drinkers would, however, result in a tendency for RRs to be biased toward the null hypothesis, whereas our meta-analysis showed significant associations. Errors in reporting beer intake might have contributed to our failure to draw any statistically significant dose-response curve from studies on this beverage.

Irregular (binge) drinkers may be frequent in cohorts of beer drinkers and might have obscured a possible dose-dependent risk reduction in regular beer drinkers. The choice of nondrinkers as a reference group has been questioned because this group may include ex-drinkers who have quit because of health problems.1,3,7,20 We performed a subanalysis restricted to studies that excluded either ex-drinkers or very light or occasional drinkers from the reference group, but the estimated overall risk still seemed to be significantly reduced. The relative 10% overall difference between the RR of wine versus beer drinkers was unchanged in studies that assessed both wine and beer drinking versus the same reference group. However, the potential confounding effect of the combined drinking of different types of alcoholic beverages in the same population was excluded by pooling data from studies that had taken this issue into consideration. Uncontrolled confounding by other known risk factors can also be reasonably excluded because the great majority of studies were adjusted for these variables; in particular, the overall results were confirmed by analyzing subgroups from studies that also adjusted for indicators of social class.


*    Conclusions
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Association does not prove cause and effect, but the presence of a dose-response relation in wine meta-analysis, although of a complex, J-shaped type, is of importance.1,51 Definite proof could only be obtained by large long-term intervention trials. Such trials seem to be unfeasible for several reasons, including ethical concerns. The evidence for the benefit connected with wine consumption should, therefore, critically include molecular and cell biology studies, animal and observational epidemiological studies, and their meta-analyses.53,55 On this basis, what should cardiologists advice their patients regarding wine or beer consumption?1316,53 First, patients and their relatives should be informed of what lifestyle changes might be beneficial to them. Besides insisting on the control of risk factors, abstainers should be informed that in the absence of contraindications and in the context of healthy eating and lifestyle, low-to-moderate wine consumption may contribute to better health. People who are already regular light-to-moderate wine consumers should be encouraged to continue. The hazards of excess drinking should always be highlighted, and heavy drinkers should be pushed to cut their consumption to a moderate level.


*    Acknowledgments
 
This work was partially supported by the EU project FAIR-CT973261 and the Abruzzo Region (Programma Operativo Multiregionale "Sviluppo Locale Patti Territoriali per l’Occupazione," Progetto 1, Sottoprogramma 9, Misura 3, Azione 3.4).

Received February 11, 2002; revision received April 3, 2002; accepted April 4, 2002.


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*References
 
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