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Circulation. 2000;102:1126-1131

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(Circulation. 2000;102:1126.)
© 2000 American Heart Association, Inc.


Clinical Investigation and Reports

Evidence of Improving Prognosis in Heart Failure

Trends in Case Fatality in 66 547 Patients Hospitalized Between 1986 and 1995

K. MacIntyre, MBChB; S. Capewell, MD, FRCPE; S. Stewart, PhD, NFESC; J.W.T. Chalmers, FFPHM; J. Boyd, BSc; A. Finlayson, BSc; A. Redpath, MPhil; J.P. Pell, MBChB, MD; J.J.V. McMurray, MD, FRCP, FESC

From the Department of Public Health (K.M., S.C., S.S.), University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK; Information and Statistics Division (J.W.T.C., J.B., A.F., A.R.), Edinburgh, UK; Greater Glasgow Health Board (J.P.P.), Glasgow, UK; and the Department of Cardiology (J.J.V.M.), Western Infirmary, Glasgow, UK.

Correspondence to Professor John J.V. McMurray, CRI in Heart Failure, Wolfson Building, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK. E-mail j.mcmurray{at}bio.gla.ac.uk


*    Abstract
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*Abstract
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Background—Contemporary survival in unselected patients with heart failure and the population impact of newer therapies have not been widely studied. Therefore, we have documented case-fatality rates (CFRs) over a recent 10-year period.

Methods and Results—In Scotland, all hospitalizations and deaths are captured on a single database. We have studied case fatality in all patients admitted with a principal diagnosis of heart failure from 1986 to 1995. A total of 66 547 patients (47% male) were studied. Median age was 72 years in men and 78 years in women. Crude CFRs at 30 days and at 1, 5, and 10 years were 19.9%, 44.5%, 76.5%, and 87.6%, respectively. Median survival was 1.47 years in men and 1.39 years in women (2.47 and 2.36 years, respectively, in those surviving 30 days). Age had a powerful effect on survival, and sex, comorbidity, and deprivation had modest effects. One-year CF was 24.2% in those aged <55 years and 58.1% in those aged >84 years. After adjustment, 30-day CFRs fell between 1986 and 1995, by 26% (95% CI 15 to 35, P<0.0001) in men and 17% (95% CI 6 to 26, P<0.0001) in women. Longer term CFRs fell by 18% (95% CI 13 to 24, P<0.0001) in men and 15% (95% CI 10 to 20, P<0.0001) in women. Median survival increased from 1.23 to 1.64 years.

Conclusions—Heart failure CF is much higher in the general population than in clinical trials, especially in the elderly. Although survival has increased significantly over the last decade, there is still much room for improvement.


Key Words: heart failure • prognosis • population • epidemiology • survival


*    Introduction
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Clinical trials have shown that the case fatality related to heart failure is high but can be significantly reduced with therapies such as angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and, more recently, ß-blockers.1 2 3 4 However, these studies have mainly enrolled middle-aged men. Thus, the trials are unrepresentative of the general population of patients with heart failure who tend to be elderly and as frequently female as male.5 6 7 The prognosis of these older patients has been less well studied. Furthermore, the population impact of newer treatments such as ACE inhibitors, now in widespread use for more than a decade, has not been investigated. We have used the unique Scottish National Health Service Linked Patient Database to study short- and long-term case-fatality rates in all patients admitted to hospital for the first time with a primary diagnosis of heart failure. We have also examined trends in these rates over the period between 1986 and 1995, during which ACE inhibitor therapy was introduced into routine clinical practice.


*    Methods
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Data Sources
The Information and Statistics Division of the National Health Service in Scotland collects and collates data on all National Health Service hospital admissions by use of the Scottish Morbidity Record scheme.5 8 This database is linked, with the use of probability matching, to information held by the General Registrar’s Office for Scotland on in-hospital and out-of-hospital deaths. This linkage permits analysis of each individual patient’s outcome.8 Although some minor losses to follow-up might be expected, emigration of people of "pensionable age" from Scotland was <2% per decade. All deaths occurring within the United Kingdom are captured by the linked database.

Time Period of Analysis
A Scottish-wide retrospective cohort study was undertaken with use of this database to identify all admissions attributed to heart failure (International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, codes 425.4, 425.5, 425.9, 428.0, 428.1, and 428.9) to Scottish Hospitals between 1986 and 1995 and subsequent deaths related to these admissions in the same period. Only the first episode of heart failure leading to a hospital admission per patient was analyzed (see below).

Information Available
Each patient’s record provided information on age, sex, postal code of residence, date of admission, and death, if it occurred. The postal codes of residence were used to attribute a Carstairs Deprivation category (from 1 to 5) to each individual. These categories are derived from 1991 census data on the proportion of residents who are unemployed, live in overcrowded accommodations, do not have access to a car, or belong to a low occupational social class. Category 1 represents the least deprived section of the population; category 5, the most deprived.8 This identified those patients who had been admitted to hospital for any other reason within 5 years before their first admission for heart failure. To consistently obtain a 5-year history of prior hospital admission for each patient, the principal analyses in the present study were confined to patients admitted between January 1986 and December 1995. This allowed patients to be followed up for a minimum of 1 year to the end of the study (December 31, 1996).

Definition of First Admission
A "first admission" was defined as no previous admission with heart failure in the past 5 years. Patients with a hospitalization related to heart failure in the previous 5 years were excluded from this analysis.

Statistical Analysis
The linked database allowed analysis of survival data for all identified patients until December 31, 1996. All surviving patients were censored at this time point to provide between 1 and 10 years of follow-up depending on the year of the index admission. If death from any cause occurred, survival time was calculated as the time from date of index admission to the date of death from any cause. Crude case-fatality rates were calculated for follow-up periods from 30 days to 10 years by use of the actuarial life-table method. This takes account of admission dates and periods of follow-up, which differ between patients. Crude case-fatality rates were stratified by age, sex, deprivation category, prior admission (comorbidity), and year of first admission for heart failure. Kaplan-Meier analyses were used to determine median survival. For patients admitted to hospital with heart failure, mortality at 30 days was modeled by use of logistic regression to analyze the independent effects of these factors. Because changes in case fatality for men and women appeared to differ over the short term depending on age, the sexes were considered separately in the multivariate analyses. All variables were entered simultaneously into the models. Each model was subject to the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and all were statistically nonsignificant. To examine the independent effect of these factors on survival thereafter, data from patients who survived >=30 days were entered into the Cox proportional hazards models. Once again, models were performed separately for men and women, and all variables were entered simultaneously into the model. The assumption of constant hazard was met for these models. For both multiple logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models, age was recoded and entered in ascending order as follows: <55, 55 to 64, 65 to 74, 75 to 84, and >84 years. Deprivation data were reentered as the 5 categories described above. The 2350 patients not assigned a deprivation category were excluded from these analyses. Prior admission categories were entered as either present or absent. The year of admission was coded chronologically from 1 to 10 (1986 to 1995). For each variable entered into a model, the lowest class was set at unity. Adjusted odds and hazards ratios for the remaining 1 to 9 classes for each variable are therefore relative to that of the lowest class. Significance was accepted at P<0.05. All analyses were undertaken with use of the Statistical Package for Social Scientists (SPSS Inc).


*    Results
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*Results
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Sex and Age
A total of 66 547 patients were admitted to hospital in Scotland for the first time with heart failure between 1986 and 1995. Men (31 040) accounted for less than half (46.6%) of the patients admitted. The median age at admission was 72 years in men and 78 years in women. Only 18.7% of patients were aged <65 years, whereas 53% were aged >75 years. The median age of patients increased over the period of study. For women, the median age increased from 76.0 years in 1986 to 79.0 years in 1995. In men, the increase was from 70.7 to 73.0 years. These trends were highly significant (P<0.0001).

Social Deprivation
Almost half (44%) of the cases came from the lowest 2 deprivation quintiles. The admission rate was 56% higher in the most deprived quintile compared with the most affluent quintile (P<0.001).

Prior Hospital Admissions
One third of the patients had a history of other admissions to hospital within the previous 5 years. Coronary heart disease accounted for the greatest proportion of these: 10 074 (15.1%) patients with an acute myocardial infarction and 7408 (11.1%) with other forms of coronary heart disease. Other vascular disease (cerebral 3677 and peripheral 2288 patients), diabetes mellitus (1760 patients), and hypertension (752 patients) were also frequently coded. Other conditions commonly coded were respiratory disease, cancer, and atrial fibrillation (Table 1Down). There was a trend over time for patients to have more prior admissions. In 1986, 42% of men had at least one prior hospitalization, whereas this proportion had increased to 52% in 1995. The respective proportions for women were 37% and 46%.


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Table 1. Crude Case-Fatality Rates (Univariate Analysis)

Crude Case-Fatality Rates (Univariate Analysis)
The overall crude case-fatality rate at 1 month, 1 year, 5 years, and 10 years was 19.9%, 44.5%, 76.5%, and 87.6%, respectively. These respective rates were 19.4%, 44.0%, 75.0%, and 87.2% in men and 20.3%, 44.9%, 76.2%, and 89.3% in women. Age had a powerful effect with the 1-month case-fatality rate, increasing from 10.4% in those aged <55 years to 25.9% in those aged >84 years. The respective rates at 1 year were 24.2% and 58.1%. Sex and deprivation had a minimal effect on crude case-fatality rates (Table 1Up).

Median Survival
Median unadjusted survival over the period of study was 1.47 years in men and 1.39 years in women. For men surviving 30 days, median survival was 2.47 years; in women, it was 2.36 years.

Adjusted Case-Fatality Rates (Multivariate Analysis)
Multivariate analysis confirmed the effect of age. The effect of age on long-term case fatality (30 days to end of follow-up period), as expressed by the hazards ratio per decade of age, was 1.42 for men and 1.38 for women. However, there was also an effect of sex and social deprivation in this analysis (Table 2Down).


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Table 2. Adjusted Case Fatality (Multivariate Analysis)

Sex
The effect of sex was modest and complex. There was a highly significant interaction between age and sex, but only for 30-day case fatality. Women <64 years fared less well than did men at 30 days, although few were in this age group ({approx}12%). In contrast, women aged >=65 years had a better outcome than did men. Because this was the majority of female patients, women (as a whole) fared better than did men in the short term. In the longer term (>30 days), no age-sex interaction was detected, and women had a lower case fatality than did men. The hazards ratio for women was 0.87 (95% CI 0.85 to 0.89), with that for men set at 1.

Deprivation
Deprivation principally increased the short-term case-fatality rate (by 26% in men and 11% in women), affecting the longer term case-fatality rate by only 10% in men and 6% in women (Table 2Up).

Comorbidity
A variety of prior admissions increased the short-term case-fatality rate, including cancer (by 44% in men and 47% in women) and peripheral vascular disease (by 36% in men and 19% in women). Similar trends were seen with renal and respiratory disease and stroke (Table 2Up). In general, the same prior admissions also increased long-term mortality. A prior admission with atrial fibrillation reduced the short-term case-fatality rate (by 32% in men and 24% in women). Prior admissions with myocardial infarction and other coronary heart disease had the same effect (Table 2Up).

Trends in Case Fatality Over Time
Crude case fatality at 1 month, 1 year, and 5 years showed a modest improvement between 1986 and 1995. Median survival increased from 1.23 to 1.64 years over this period (Table 3Down). After adjustment for age, deprivation, and prior admission, short-term (30-day) case-fatality rates fell by 26% in men (95% CI 15 to 35, P<0.0001) and by 17% in women (95% CI 6 to 26, P<0.0001). Longer term case-fatality rates fell by {approx}18.0% in men (95% CI 13 to 24, P<0.0001) and 15.0% in women (95% CI 10 to 20, P<0.0001) (Table 3Down, Figures 1Down and 2Down).


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Table 3. Trends in Case Fatality Over Time



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Figure 1. Decline in adjusted risk of dying within 30 days after first heart failure admission between 1986 and 1995. Adjusted odds ratios for 1987 through 1995 are relative to 1986.



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Figure 2. Decline in adjusted risk of dying after 30 days following a first heart failure admission between 1986 and 1995. Adjusted hazards ratios for 1987 through 1995 are relative to 1986.


*    Discussion
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*Discussion
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The present study confirms that unselected patients in the community with heart failure differ from those enrolled in clinical trials in that they are elderly and, in more than half the cases, female.1 2 3 4 Our data also show that the prognosis for patients admitted to hospital with heart failure is even worse than indicated by clinical trials. One fifth of the patients die within 1 month of admission, nearly half die by 1 year, and three fourths die by 5 years. Median survival is only {approx}1.5 years.

We know of no similar data from the whole population of a single country. However, our findings can be compared with the 14.8-year follow-up of the Framingham study. During this time, 652 subjects developed heart failure (subjects were screened between 1948 and 1988).9 10 The mean age of those diagnosed in the 1980s in the Framingham study was 76.4 years. The average follow-up of the 652 subjects identified was 3.9 years after the onset of heart failure. Median survival in the Framingham population was 1.66 years in men and 3.17 years in women. One-, 2-, 5-, and 10-year mortality rates were 43%, 54%, 75%, and 89% in men. Women in the Framingham study had a better crude and adjusted survival (crude survival 36%, 44%, 62%, and 79% for the corresponding periods of follow-up). Patients in the Framingham study with heart failure caused by valvular heart disease or other/unknown causes had a worse survival than did those with underlying coronary heart disease. Women fared better than men. Our findings are remarkably similar to those of the Framingham investigators, including the better survival in patients with a presumed coronary etiology (although, interestingly, this finding contrasts with some clinical trials).

The Rochester Epidemiology project has also described the prognosis in 107 patients presenting to associated hospitals with new-onset heart failure in 1981 and in 141 patients presenting in 1991.11 The median follow-up in these cohorts was 1061 and 1233 days, respectively. The mean age of the 1981 patients was 75 years, rising to 77 years in 1991. We also found that the average age of patients hospitalized with heart failure has increased over time. Crude and adjusted survival did not improve over the period of study.

Respective 1-year and 5-year mortality rates were 28% and 66% in the 1981 cohort and 23% and 67% in the 1991 cohort. In other words, although the same diagnostic criteria used in the Framingham study were used in the Rochester project, the prognosis was somewhat better in the latter. The only other large representative epidemiological study reporting long-term outcome in patients with heart failure is the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES-I).12 The initial program evaluated 14 407 adults aged 25 and 74 years in the United States between 1971 and 1975. Follow-up studies were carried out in 1982 to 1984 and again in 1986 (for those aged >=55 years and alive during the 1982 to 1984 review). The estimated 10-year mortality in subjects aged 25 to 74 years with self-reported heart failure was 42.8% (49.8% in men and 36% in women). Mortality in those aged 65 to 74 years was 65.4% (71.8% and 59.5% in men and women, respectively). These mortality rates are considerably lower than those observed in Scotland and Framingham. In the present study, the 10-year case-fatality rates in men and women aged 65 to 74 years were 89% and 86%, respectively. The explanation for this difference is not clear. The patients in NHANES-I were not institutionalized, and their heart failure was self-reported. Follow-up was incomplete. NHANES-I was also carried out in a more recent time period than the Framingham study, and the prognosis in patients may have improved by this time (see below).

The second major finding in the present study is that case fatality in patients admitted to hospital with heart failure has been falling over the last decade. Adjusted short-term case fatality has fallen by {approx}20% to 25%, and longer term case fatality has fallen by 15% to 20%. Thus, median life expectancy has increased by almost half a year (or by a third). This is a quite different finding from that reported by the Framingham investigators in 1993,9 who studied patients developing heart failure in the period 1948 to 1988, and by the Rochester investigators, who studied patients in the period 1981 to 1991.11 In both of these studies, no temporal change in prognosis was identified. Therefore, it is clearly tempting to suggest that our more encouraging observations, from an era when ACE inhibitors have become more widely used, reflect a true improvement in survival, consequent on better treatment. Clearly, this observation must be speculative. Although ACE inhibitors are used widely among patients admitted to Scottish hospitals with heart failure,13 14 15 it is also possible that other factors could account for the apparent reduction in short- and long-term case-fatality rates. One obvious explanation is a reduction in admission threshold and the consequent creation of a cohort of patients with milder disease. We know of no evidence to support (or refute) this possibility. However, our observations are supported by 2 recent reports of decreasing age-adjusted population mortality rates for heart failure.16 17 Furthermore, the decline in case fatality observed between 1986 and 1995 is consistent with the best estimation of the population impact of ACE inhibitor treatment, having allowed for relatively low treatment uptake (40%) and imperfect compliance (70%).18

One further important finding in the multivariate analysis is the effect of atrial fibrillation to reduce case-fatality rates. Some prior studies agree with this, whereas others do not.19 20 It is likely that in the present study, a proportion of patients with atrial fibrillation may have heart failure but preserved left ventricular function, and this may account for their better prognosis.

There are obvious limitations to any study of the type that we have conducted. We have had to rely on discharge coding to identify cases. Although these have been found to be quite accurate in Scotland, we do not know whether patients with a diagnosis of heart failure had left ventricular systolic dysfunction, preserved systolic function, or some other cause of their syndrome. Although there is some debate, it seems that the prognosis in patients with normal systolic function is better than that in those with depressed function.21 22 We have clearly described the outcome in a mixture of such patients, as have the Framingham study, the Rochester study, and, almost certainly, NHANES-I. Nevertheless, these are the patients who have heart failure in the community. We have also only studied patients admitted to the hospital. Arguably, these are patients at the more severe end of the spectrum of heart failure. Community surveys, however, show that most patients with heart failure have been admitted to hospital, the majority within 2 years of identification.23 Comorbidity was identified only from prior hospital admissions, clearly representing only the more severe cases.

In summary, the prognosis of patients admitted to hospital for the first time with a diagnosis of heart failure is very poor indeed. Although there has, at last, been some modest increase in survival, there is much room for further improvement.


*    Acknowledgments
 
This study was funded by the British Heart Foundation.

Received January 21, 2000; revision received March 29, 2000; accepted April 4, 2000.


*    References
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up arrowAbstract
up arrowIntroduction
up arrowMethods
up arrowResults
up arrowDiscussion
*References
 
1. The SOLVD Investigators. Effect of enalapril on survival in patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fractions and congestive heart failure. N Engl J Med. 1991;325:293–302.[Abstract]

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7. Haldeman GA, Croft JB, Giles WH, et al. Hospitalization of patients with heart failure: National Hospital Discharge Survey, 1985 to 1995. Am Heart J. 1999;137:352–360.[Medline] [Order article via Infotrieve]

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17. Murdoch DR, Love MP, Robb SD, et al. Importance of heart failure as a cause of death: changing contribution to overall mortality and coronary heart disease mortality in Scotland 1979–1992. Eur Heart J. 1998;19:1829–1835.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

18. Capewell S, Morrison C, McMurray J. Contribution of modern cardiovascular treatment and risk factor changes to the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Scotland between 1975–1994. Heart. 1999;81:380–386.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

19. Carson PE, Johnson GR, Dunkman WB, et al. The influence of atrial fibrillation on prognosis in mild to moderate heart failure: the V-Heft studies. Circulation. 1993;87(suppl VI):VI-102–VI-110.

20. Dries DL, Exner DV, Gersh BJ, et al. Atrial fibrillation is associated with an increased risk for mortality and heart failure progression in patients with asymptomatic and symptomatic left ventricular systolic dysfunction: a retrospective analysis of the SOLVD trials. J Am Coll Cardiol. 1998;32:695–703.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

21. Senni M, Tribouilloy CM, Rodeheffer RJ, et al. Congestive heart failure in the community: a study of all incident cases in Olmsted County, Minnesota, in 1991. Circulation. 1998;98:2282–2289.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

22. Vasan RS, Larson MG, Benjamin EJ, et al. Congestive heart failure in subjects with normal versus reduced left ventricular ejection fraction: prevalence and mortality in a population-based cohort. J Am Coll Cardiol. 1999;33:1948–1955.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

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CirculationHome page
P. S. Jhund, K. MacIntyre, C. R. Simpson, J. D. Lewsey, S. Stewart, A. Redpath, J. W.T. Chalmers, S. Capewell, and J. J.V. McMurray
Long-Term Trends in First Hospitalization for Heart Failure and Subsequent Survival Between 1986 and 2003: A Population Study of 5.1 Million People
Circulation, February 3, 2009; 119(4): 515 - 523.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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JAMAHome page
M. Pfisterer, P. Buser, H. Rickli, M. Gutmann, P. Erne, P. Rickenbacher, A. Vuillomenet, U. Jeker, P. Dubach, H. Beer, et al.
BNP-Guided vs Symptom-Guided Heart Failure Therapy: The Trial of Intensified vs Standard Medical Therapy in Elderly Patients With Congestive Heart Failure (TIME-CHF) Randomized Trial
JAMA, January 28, 2009; 301(4): 383 - 392.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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ESC Textbook of Cardiovascular MedicineHome page
J. McMurray, M. Petrie, K. Swedberg, M. Komajda, S. Anker, and R. Gardner
CHAPTER 23 Heart Failure
ESC Textbook of Cardiovascular Medicine, January 1, 2009; 2(1): med-9780199566990-chapter - med-9780199566990-chapter.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur J Heart FailHome page
S. Stork, H. W. Hense, C. Zentgraf, I. Uebelacker, R. Jahns, G. Ertl, and C. E. Angermann
Pharmacotherapy according to treatment guidelines is associated with lower mortality in a community-based sample of patients with chronic heart failure A prospective cohort study
Eur J Heart Fail, December 1, 2008; 10(12): 1236 - 1245.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Circ Heart FailHome page
M. R. MacDonald, P. S. Jhund, M. C. Petrie, J. D. Lewsey, N. M. Hawkins, S. Bhagra, N. Munoz, F. Varyani, A. Redpath, J. Chalmers, et al.
Discordant Short- and Long-Term Outcomes Associated With Diabetes in Patients With Heart Failure: Importance of Age and Sex: A Population Study of 5.1 Million People in Scotland
Circ Heart Fail, November 1, 2008; 1(4): 234 - 241.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur Heart JHome page
Authors/Task Force Members, K. Dickstein, A. Cohen-Solal, G. Filippatos, J. J.V. McMurray, P. Ponikowski, P. A. Poole-Wilson, A. Stromberg, D. J. van Veldhuisen, D. Atar, et al.
ESC Guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of acute and chronic heart failure 2008: The Task Force for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Acute and Chronic Heart Failure 2008 of the European Society of Cardiology. Developed in collaboration with the Heart Failure Association of the ESC (HFA) and endorsed by the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine (ESICM)
Eur. Heart J., October 1, 2008; 29(19): 2388 - 2442.
[Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur J Heart FailHome page
K. Dickstein, A. Cohen-Solal, G. Filippatos, J. J.V. McMurray, P. Ponikowski, P. A. Poole-Wilson, A. Stromberg, D. J. van Veldhuisen, D. Atar, A. W. Hoes, et al.
ESC Guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of acute and chronic heart failure 2008: The Task Force for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Acute and Chronic Heart Failure 2008 of the European Society of Cardiology. Developed in collaboration with the Heart Failure Association of the ESC (HFA) and endorsed by the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine (ESICM)
Eur J Heart Fail, October 1, 2008; 10(10): 933 - 989.
[Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur J Heart FailHome page
L. Erhardt, M. Komajda, F.D. R. Hobbs, and J. Soler-Soler
Cardiologists' awareness and perceptions of guidelines for chronic heart failure. The ADDress your Heart survey
Eur J Heart Fail, October 1, 2008; 10(10): 1020 - 1025.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur. J. Cardiothorac. Surg.Home page
N. Derval, L. Barandon, P. Dufourcq, L. Leroux, J.-M. D. Lamaziere, D. Daret, T. Couffinhal, and C. Duplaa
Epicardial deposition of endothelial progenitor and mesenchymal stem cells in a coated muscle patch after myocardial infarction in a murine model.
Eur. J. Cardiothorac. Surg., August 1, 2008; 34(2): 248 - 254.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur J Heart FailHome page
Meta-analysis Research Group in Echocardiography (
Independence of restrictive filling pattern and LV ejection fraction with mortality in heart failure: An individual patient meta-analysis
Eur J Heart Fail, August 1, 2008; 10(8): 786 - 792.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur Heart JHome page
M. R. MacDonald, M. C. Petrie, N. M. Hawkins, J. R. Petrie, M. Fisher, R. McKelvie, D. Aguilar, H. Krum, and J. J.V. McMurray
Diabetes, left ventricular systolic dysfunction, and chronic heart failure
Eur. Heart J., May 2, 2008; 29(10): 1224 - 1240.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur Heart JHome page
E. F. Lewis, E. J. Velazquez, S. D. Solomon, A. S. Hellkamp, J. J.V. McMurray, J. Mathias, J.-L. Rouleau, A. P. Maggioni, K. Swedberg, L. Kober, et al.
Predictors of the first heart failure hospitalization in patients who are stable survivors of myocardial infarction complicated by pulmonary congestion and/or left ventricular dysfunction: a VALIANT study
Eur. Heart J., March 2, 2008; 29(6): 748 - 756.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Chronic IllnessHome page
S. Barnes, M. Gott, S. Payne, C. Parker, D. Seamark, S. Gariballa, and N. Small
Predicting mortality among a general practice-based sample of older people with heart failure
Chronic Illness, March 1, 2008; 4(1): 5 - 12.
[Abstract] [PDF]


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CirculationHome page
R. C. Myles, C. E. Jackson, I. Tsorlalis, M. C. Petrie, J. J. V. McMurray, and S. M. Cobbe
Is Microvolt T-Wave Alternans the Answer to Risk Stratification in Heart Failure?
Circulation, December 18, 2007; 116(25): 2984 - 2991.
[Full Text] [PDF]


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CJASNHome page
D. Banerjee, J. Z. Ma, A. J. Collins, and C. A. Herzog
Long-Term Survival of Incident Hemodialysis Patients Who Are Hospitalized for Congestive Heart Failure, Pulmonary Edema, or Fluid Overload
Clin. J. Am. Soc. Nephrol., November 1, 2007; 2(6): 1186 - 1190.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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HeartHome page
A. Mosterd and A. W Hoes
Clinical epidemiology of heart failure
Heart, September 1, 2007; 93(9): 1137 - 1146.
[Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur Respir JHome page
A. J. Peacock, N. F. Murphy, J. J. V. McMurray, L. Caballero, and S. Stewart
An epidemiological study of pulmonary arterial hypertension
Eur. Respir. J., July 1, 2007; 30(1): 104 - 109.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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HeartHome page
N. F Murphy, C. R Simpson, P. S Jhund, S. Stewart, M. Kirkpatrick, J. Chalmers, K. MacIntyre, and J. J V McMurray
A national survey of the prevalence, incidence, primary care burden and treatment of atrial fibrillation in Scotland
Heart, May 1, 2007; 93(5): 606 - 612.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Arch Intern MedHome page
R. J. Goldberg, J. Ciampa, D. Lessard, T. E. Meyer, and F. A. Spencer
Long-term Survival After Heart Failure: A Contemporary Population-Based Perspective
Arch Intern Med, March 12, 2007; 167(5): 490 - 496.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur J Heart FailHome page
S. Stewart, N.F. Murphy, J.J.V. McMurray, P. Jhund, C.L. Hart, and D. Hole
Effect of socioeconomic deprivation on the population risk of incident heart failure hospitalisation: An analysis of the Renfrew/Paisley Study
Eur J Heart Fail, December 1, 2006; 8(8): 856 - 863.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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CirculationHome page
H. Skali, M. A. Pfeffer, J. Lubsen, and S. D. Solomon
Variable Impact of Combining Fatal and Nonfatal End Points in Heart Failure Trials
Circulation, November 21, 2006; 114(21): 2298 - 2303.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur Heart JHome page
M. S. Nieminen, D. Brutsaert, K. Dickstein, H. Drexler, F. Follath, V.-P. Harjola, M. Hochadel, M. Komajda, J. Lassus, J. L. Lopez-Sendon, et al.
EuroHeart Failure Survey II (EHFS II): a survey on hospitalized acute heart failure patients: description of population
Eur. Heart J., November 2, 2006; 27(22): 2725 - 2736.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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J Am Coll CardiolHome page
R. R. van Kimmenade, J. L. Januzzi Jr, P. T. Ellinor, U. C. Sharma, J. A. Bakker, A. F. Low, A. Martinez, H. J. Crijns, C. A. MacRae, P. P. Menheere, et al.
Utility of Amino-Terminal Pro-Brain Natriuretic Peptide, Galectin-3, and Apelin for the Evaluation of Patients With Acute Heart Failure
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., September 19, 2006; 48(6): 1217 - 1224.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur Heart JHome page
S. Monte, A. Macchia, F. Pellegrini, M. Romero, V. Lepore, A. D'Ettorre, M. Saugo, L. Tavazzi, and G. Tognoni
Antithrombotic treatment is strongly underused despite reducing overall mortality among high-risk elderly patients hospitalized with atrial fibrillation
Eur. Heart J., September 2, 2006; 27(18): 2217 - 2223.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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EuropaceHome page
M. D. Smit, P. F.H.M. Van Dessel, M. Rienstra, W. Nieuwland, A. C.P. Wiesfeld, E. S. Tan, R. L. Anthonio, D. J. Van Veldhuisen, and I. C. Van Gelder
Atrial fibrillation predicts appropriate shocks in primary prevention implantable cardioverter-defibrillator patients.
Europace, August 1, 2006; 8(8): 566 - 572.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur J Heart FailHome page
K. S. Chong, R. S. Gardner, J. J. Morton, E. A. Ashley, and T. A. McDonagh
Plasma concentrations of the novel peptide apelin are decreased in patients with chronic heart failure
Eur J Heart Fail, June 1, 2006; 8(4): 355 - 360.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur Heart J SupplHome page
B. Silke
Beta-blockade in CHF: pathophysiological considerations
Eur. Heart J. Suppl., June 1, 2006; 8(suppl_C): C13 - C18.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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CirculationHome page
B. R. Davis, L. B. Piller, J. A. Cutler, C. Furberg, K. Dunn, S. Franklin, D. Goff, F. Leenen, S. Mohiuddin, V. Papademetriou, et al.
Role of Diuretics in the Prevention of Heart Failure: The Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial
Circulation, May 9, 2006; 113(18): 2201 - 2210.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Circ. Res.Home page
T. Eschenhagen, W. H. Zimmermann, and A. G. Kleber
Electrical Coupling of Cardiac Myocyte Cell Sheets to the Heart
Circ. Res., March 17, 2006; 98(5): 573 - 575.
[Full Text] [PDF]


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CirculationHome page
W. H. Barker, J. P. Mullooly, and W. Getchell
Changing Incidence and Survival for Heart Failure in a Well-Defined Older Population, 1970-1974 and 1990-1994
Circulation, February 14, 2006; 113(6): 799 - 805.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur J Heart FailHome page
C. H.M. van Jaarsveld, A. V. Ranchor, G. I.J.M. Kempen, J. C. Coyne, D. J. van Veldhuisen, and R. Sanderman
Epidemiology of heart failure in a community-based study of subjects aged >=57 years: Incidence and long-term survival
Eur J Heart Fail, January 1, 2006; 8(1): 23 - 30.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur Heart JHome page
M. J. Lenzen, E. Boersma, W. J.M. Scholte op Reimer, A. H.M.M. Balk, M. Komajda, K. Swedberg, F. Follath, M. Jimenez-Navarro, M. L. Simoons, and J. G.F. Cleland
Under-utilization of evidence-based drug treatment in patients with heart failure is only partially explained by dissimilarity to patients enrolled in landmark trials: a report from the Euro Heart Survey on Heart Failure
Eur. Heart J., December 2, 2005; 26(24): 2706 - 2713.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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J. Epidemiol. Community HealthHome page
I Gemmell, R F Heller, P McElduff, K Payne, G Butler, R Edwards, M Roland, and P Durrington
Population impact of stricter adherence to recommendations for pharmacological and lifestyle interventions over one year in patients with coronary heart disease
J Epidemiol Community Health, December 1, 2005; 59(12): 1041 - 1046.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur Heart JHome page
L. Grigorian Shamagian, J. R. Gonzalez-Juanatey, A. V. Roman, J. M. G. Acuna, and A. V. Lamela
The death rate among hospitalized heart failure patients with normal and depressed left ventricular ejection fraction in the year following discharge: evolution over a 10-year period
Eur. Heart J., November 1, 2005; 26(21): 2251 - 2258.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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JAMAHome page
D. S. Lee, J. V. Tu, D. N. Juurlink, D. A. Alter, D. T. Ko, P. C. Austin, A. Chong, T. A. Stukel, D. Levy, and A. Laupacis
Risk-Treatment Mismatch in the Pharmacotherapy of Heart Failure
JAMA, September 14, 2005; 294(10): 1240 - 1247.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur J Heart FailHome page
E. Galve, A. Mallol, R. Catalan, J. Palet, S. Mendez, E. Nieto, A. Diaz, and J. Soler-Soler
Clinical and neurohumoral consequences of diuretic withdrawal in patients with chronic, stabilized heart failure and systolic dysfunction
Eur J Heart Fail, August 1, 2005; 7(5): 892 - 898.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur J Heart FailHome page
S. Ojeda, M. Anguita, M. Delgado, F. Atienza, C. Rus, A. L. Granados, F. Ridocci, F. Valles, and J. A. Velasco
Short- and long-term results of a programme for the prevention of readmissions and mortality in patients with heart failure: Are effects maintained after stopping the programme?
Eur J Heart Fail, August 1, 2005; 7(5): 921 - 926.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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HeartHome page
C Berry, K Hogg, J Norrie, K Stevenson, M Brett, and J McMurray
Heart failure with preserved left ventricular systolic function: a hospital cohort study
Heart, July 1, 2005; 91(7): 907 - 913.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur J Heart FailHome page
K. Dunderdale, D. R. Thompson, J. N.V. Miles, S. F. Beer, and G. Furze
Quality-of-life measurement in chronic heart failure: do we take account of the patient perspective?
Eur J Heart Fail, June 1, 2005; 7(4): 572 - 582.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur J Heart FailHome page
D. R. Thompson, A. Roebuck, and S. Stewart
Effects of a nurse-led, clinic and home-based intervention on recurrent hospital use in chronic heart failure
Eur J Heart Fail, March 16, 2005; 7(3): 377 - 384.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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ANN INTERN MEDHome page
A. T. Yan, R. T. Yan, and P. P. Liu
Narrative Review: Pharmacotherapy for Chronic Heart Failure: Evidence from Recent Clinical Trials
Ann Intern Med, January 18, 2005; 142(2): 132 - 145.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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AJPHHome page
B. Unal, J. A. Critchley, D. Fidan, and S. Capewell
Life-Years Gained From Modern Cardiological Treatments and Population Risk Factor Changes in England and Wales, 1981-2000
Am J Public Health, January 1, 2005; 95(1): 103 - 108.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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EuropaceHome page
J.-J. Blanc, M. Fatemi, V.ér. Bertault, F. Baraket, and Y. Etienne
Evaluation of left bundle branch block as a reversible cause of non-ischaemic dilated cardiomyopathy with severe heart failure. A new concept of left ventricular dyssynchrony-induced cardiomyopathy
Europace, January 1, 2005; 7(6): 604 - 610.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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J Am Coll CardiolHome page
J. J.V. McMurray and M. A. Pfeffer
The year in heart failure
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., December 21, 2004; 44(12): 2398 - 2405.
[Full Text] [PDF]


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CirculationHome page
J. B. Young, M. E. Dunlap, M. A. Pfeffer, J. L. Probstfield, A. Cohen-Solal, R. Dietz, C. B. Granger, J. Hradec, J. Kuch, R. S. McKelvie, et al.
Mortality and Morbidity Reduction With Candesartan in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure and Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction: Results of the CHARM Low-Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction Trials
Circulation, October 26, 2004; 110(17): 2618 - 2626.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur Heart JHome page
F. Gustafsson, C. Torp-Pedersen, M. Seibaek, H. Burchardt, L. Kober, and for the DIAMOND study group
Effect of age on short and long-term mortality in patients admitted to hospital with congestive heart failure
Eur. Heart J., October 1, 2004; 25(19): 1711 - 1717.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Ann. Thorac. Surg.Home page
L. Barandon, T. Couffinhal, P. Dufourcq, P. Alzieu, D. Daret, C. Deville, and C. Duplaa
Repair of Myocardial Infarction by Epicardial Deposition of Bone Marrow Cell-Coated Muscle Patch in a Murine Model
Ann. Thorac. Surg., October 1, 2004; 78(4): 1409 - 1417.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur J Heart FailHome page
C. Opasich, S. De Feo, G.A. Ambrosio, P. Bellis, A. Di Lenarda, G. Di Tano, D. Fico, L. Gonzini, R. Lavecchia, C. Tomasi, et al.
The 'real' woman with heart failure. Impact of sex on current in-hospital management of heart failure by cardiologists and internists
Eur J Heart Fail, October 1, 2004; 6(6): 769 - 779.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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CirculationHome page
C. Kimmelstiel, D. Levine, K. Perry, A. R. Patel, A. Sadaniantz, N. Gorham, M. Cunnie, L. Duggan, L. Cotter, P. Shea-Albright, et al.
Randomized, Controlled Evaluation of Short- and Long-Term Benefits of Heart Failure Disease Management Within a Diverse Provider Network: The SPAN-CHF Trial
Circulation, September 14, 2004; 110(11): 1450 - 1455.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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ANN INTERN MEDHome page
F. A. McAlister, J. A. Ezekowitz, N. Wiebe, B. Rowe, C. Spooner, E. Crumley, L. Hartling, T. Klassen, and W. Abraham
Systematic Review: Cardiac Resynchronization in Patients with Symptomatic Heart Failure
Ann Intern Med, September 7, 2004; 141(5): 381 - 390.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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CirculationHome page
J. Critchley, J. Liu, D. Zhao, W. Wei, and S. Capewell
Explaining the Increase in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in Beijing Between 1984 and 1999
Circulation, September 7, 2004; 110(10): 1236 - 1244.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur Heart JHome page
F. Gustafsson and J. M. O. Arnold
Heart failure clinics and outpatient management: review of the evidence and call for quality assurance
Eur. Heart J., September 2, 2004; 25(18): 1596 - 1604.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur Heart JHome page
G. S. Bleumink, A. M. Knetsch, M. C.J.M. Sturkenboom, S. M.J.M. Straus, A. Hofman, J. W. Deckers, J. C.M. Witteman, and B. H.Ch. Stricker
Quantifying the heart failure epidemic: prevalence, incidence rate, lifetime risk and prognosis of heart failure: The Rotterdam Study
Eur. Heart J., September 2, 2004; 25(18): 1614 - 1619.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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J Am Coll CardiolHome page
F. A. McAlister, S. Stewart, S. Ferrua, and J. J.J.V. McMurray
Multidisciplinary strategies for the management of heart failure patients at high risk for admission: A systematic review of randomized trials
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., August 18, 2004; 44(4): 810 - 819.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur J Heart FailHome page
J. Muntwyler, A. Cohen-Solal, N. Freemantle, J. Eastaugh, J. G. Cleland, and F. Follath
Relation of sex, age and concomitant diseases to drug prescription for heart failure in primary care in Europe
Eur J Heart Fail, August 1, 2004; 6(5): 663 - 668.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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JAMAHome page
V. L. Roger, S. A. Weston, M. M. Redfield, J. P. Hellermann-Homan, J. Killian, B. P. Yawn, and S. J. Jacobsen
Trends in Heart Failure Incidence and Survival in a Community-Based Population
JAMA, July 21, 2004; 292(3): 344 - 350.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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BMJHome page
F A McAlister, N F Murphy, C R Simpson, S Stewart, K MacIntyre, M Kirkpatrick, J Chalmers, A Redpath, S Capewell, and J J V McMurray
Influence of socioeconomic deprivation on the primary care burden and treatment of patients with a diagnosis of heart failure in general practice in Scotland: population based study
BMJ, May 8, 2004; 328(7448): 1110.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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J Am Coll CardiolHome page
I. Gustafsson, B. Brendorp, M. Seibaek, H. Burchardt, P. Hildebrandt, L. Kober, C. Torp-Pedersen, and DIAMOND Study Group
Influence of diabetes and diabetes-gender interaction on the risk of death in patients hospitalized with congestive heart failure
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., March 3, 2004; 43(5): 771 - 777.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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CirculationHome page
F. A. McAlister, J. Ezekowitz, M. Tonelli, and P. W. Armstrong
Renal Insufficiency and Heart Failure: Prognostic and Therapeutic Implications From a Prospective Cohort Study
Circulation, March 2, 2004; 109(8): 1004 - 1009.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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HeartHome page
S Stewart, N Murphy, A Walker, A McGuire, and J J V McMurray
Cost of an emerging epidemic: an economic analysis of atrial fibrillation in the UK
Heart, March 1, 2004; 90(3): 286 - 292.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Journal of Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone SystemHome page
M. Tendera
The epidemiology of heart failure
Journal of Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone System, March 1, 2004; 5(1_suppl): S2 - S6.
[Abstract] [PDF]


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Journal of Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone SystemHome page
M. Metra, S. Nodari, and L. Dei Cas
Current guidelines in the pharmacological management of chronic heart failure
Journal of Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone System, March 1, 2004; 5(1_suppl): S11 - S16.
[Abstract] [PDF]


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Eur Heart JHome page
M. T. Kearney and M. Marber
Trends in incidence and prognosis of heart failure: You always pass failure on the way to success
Eur. Heart J., February 2, 2004; 25(4): 283 - 284.
[Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur Heart JHome page
M. Schaufelberger, K. Swedberg, M. Koster, M. Rosen, and A. Rosengren
Decreasing one-year mortality and hospitalization rates for heart failure in Sweden: Data from the Swedish Hospital Discharge Registry 1988 to 2000
Eur. Heart J., February 2, 2004; 25(4): 300 - 307.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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QJMHome page
F. Formiga, D. Chivite, N. Manito, V. Osma, S. Miravet, and R. Pujol
One-year follow-up of heart failure patients after their first admission
QJM, February 1, 2004; 97(2): 81 - 86.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur Heart JHome page
F. Gustafsson, C. Torp-Pedersen, H. Burchardt, P. Buch, M. Seibaek, E. Kjoller, I. Gustafsson, L. Kober, and for the DIAMOND Study group
Female sex is associated with a better long-term survival in patients hospitalized with congestive heart failure
Eur. Heart J., January 2, 2004; 25(2): 129 - 135.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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BMJHome page
G Lyratzopoulos and R F Heller
Prognosis for South Asian and white patients with heart failure in the United Kingdom: Deprivation gradient in mortality should not be dismissed as artefactual
BMJ, December 13, 2003; 327(7428): 1406 - 1406.
[Full Text]


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BMJHome page
I. Squire, J. Newton, and H. Blackledge
Prognosis for South Asian and white patients with heart failure in the United Kingdom: Authors' reply
BMJ, December 13, 2003; 327(7428): 1406 - 1406.
[Full Text]


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Hum Mol GenetHome page
P. Le Corvoisier, H.-Y. Park, K. M. Carlson, D. A. Marchuk, and H. A. Rockman
Multiple quantitative trait loci modify the heart failure phenotype in murine cardiomyopathy
Hum. Mol. Genet., December 1, 2003; 12(23): 3097 - 3107.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur J Heart FailHome page
E. C. Vourvouri, A. F.L. Schinkel, J. R.T.C. Roelandt, F. Boomsma, G. Sianos, M. Bountioukos, F. B. Sozzi, V. Rizzello, J. J. Bax, H. I. Karvounis, et al.
Screening for left ventricular dysfunction using a hand-carried cardiac ultrasound device
Eur J Heart Fail, December 1, 2003; 5(6): 767 - 774.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur J Heart FailHome page
L. L. Ng, I. Loke, J. E. Davies, K. Khunti, M. Stone, K. R. Abrams, D. T. Chin, and I. B. Squire
Identification of previously undiagnosed left ventricular systolic dysfunction: community screening using natriuretic peptides and electrocardiography
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Torasemide vs. furosemide in primary care patients with chronic heart failure NYHA II to IV--efficacy and quality of life
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D. S. Lee, P. C. Austin, J. L. Rouleau, P. P. Liu, D. Naimark, and J. V. Tu
Predicting Mortality Among Patients Hospitalized for Heart Failure: Derivation and Validation of a Clinical Model
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H. M Blackledge, J. Newton, and I. B Squire
Prognosis for South Asian and white patients newly admitted to hospital with heart failure in the United Kingdom: historical cohort study
BMJ, September 6, 2003; 327(7414): 526 - 531.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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T P Ng and M Niti
Trends and ethnic differences in hospital admissions and mortality for congestive heart failure in the elderly in Singapore, 1991 to 1998
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Pre-discharge, but not admission, levels of NT-proBNP predict adverse prognosis following acute LVF
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[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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