Circulation, Vol 65, 789-794, Copyright © 1982 by American Heart Association
D Sparrow, AJ Garvey, B Rosner and HE Thomas Jr
A total of 1166 male participants (ages 23--80 years) of the Normative
Aging Study who had baseline blood pressure less than 140/90 mm Hg were
followed prospectively for 10 years. Blood pressures were taken at 5- and
10-year follow-up examinations. Multiple linear regression analysis
indicated that baseline levels of systolic pressure, hematocrit,
subscapular skinfold thickness and age were significant predictors of
systolic pressure change during the follow-up period. Baseline levels of
diastolic pressure, hematocrit, and body mass index were significant
predictors of diastolic pressure change. Multiple logistic regression
analysis revealed that only baseline blood pressure and hematocrit were
significant predictors of subsequent blood pressure elevation to more than
159 mm Hg systolic or 94 mm Hg diastolic. Although the mechanisms by which
hematocrit and body build affect blood pressure are unknown, these results
suggest that identifying hypertension-prone subjects and delaying or
preventing hypertension may be possible.
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Factors in predicting blood pressure change
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