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(Circulation. 2008;117:356-362.)
© 2008 American Heart Association, Inc.

Cardiovascular Surgery

Mayo Clinic Risk Score for Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Predicts In-Hospital Mortality in Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

Mandeep Singh, MD, MPH; Bernard J. Gersh, MB, ChB; Shuang Li, MS; John S. Rumsfeld, MD; John A. Spertus, MD, MPH; Sean M. O’Brien, PhD; Rakesh M. Suri, MD, DPhil; Eric D. Peterson, MD, MPH

From the Division of Cardiovascular Diseases (M.S., B.J.G., R.M.S.), Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minn; Duke Clinical Research Institute (S.L., S.M.O., E.D.P.), Durham, NC; Mid America Heart Institute/UMKC (J.A.S.), Kansas City, Mo; and Denver VA Medical Center (J.S.R.), Denver, Colo.

Reprint requests to Mandeep Singh, MD, MPH, Division of Cardiovascular Diseases, Mayo Clinic, 200 First St SW, Rochester, MN 55905.

Received April 29, 2007; accepted October 17, 2007.

Background— Current risk models predict in-hospital mortality after either coronary artery bypass graft surgery or percutaneous coronary interventions separately, yet the overlap suggests that the same variables can define the risks of alternative coronary reperfusion therapies. Our goal was to seek a preprocedure risk model that can predict in-hospital mortality after either percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

Methods and Results— We tested the ability of the recently validated, integer-based Mayo Clinic Risk Score (MCRS) for percutaneous coronary intervention, which is based solely on preprocedure variables (age, creatinine, ejection fraction, myocardial infarction 24 hours, shock, congestive heart failure, and peripheral vascular disease), to predict in-hospital mortality among 370 793 patients in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons database undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery from 2004 to 2006. For the Society of Thoracic Surgeons coronary artery bypass graft surgery population studied, the median age was 66 years (quartiles 1 to 3, 57 to 74 years), with 37.2% of patients 70 years old. A high prevalence of comorbid conditions, including diabetes mellitus (37.1%), hypertension (80.5%), peripheral vascular disease (15.3%), and renal disease (creatinine 1.4 mg/dL; 11.8%), was present. A strong association existed between the MCRS and the observed mortality in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons database. The in-hospital mortality ranged between 0.3% (95% confidence interval 0.3% to 0.4%) with a score of 0 on the MCRS and 33.8% (95% confidence interval 27.3% to 40.3%) with an MCRS score of 20 to 24. The discriminatory ability of the MCRS was moderate, as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (C-statistic=0.715 to 0.784 among various subgroups); performance was inferior to the Society of Thoracic Surgeons model for most categories tested.

Conclusions— This model, which is based on 7 preprocedure risk variables, may be useful for providing patients with individualized, evidence-based estimates of procedural risk as part of the informed consent process before percutaneous or surgical revascularization.

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