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Circulation. 2000;102:1126-1131

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(Circulation. 2000;102:1126.)
© 2000 American Heart Association, Inc.


Clinical Investigation and Reports

Evidence of Improving Prognosis in Heart Failure

Trends in Case Fatality in 66 547 Patients Hospitalized Between 1986 and 1995

K. MacIntyre, MBChB; S. Capewell, MD, FRCPE; S. Stewart, PhD, NFESC; J.W.T. Chalmers, FFPHM; J. Boyd, BSc; A. Finlayson, BSc; A. Redpath, MPhil; J.P. Pell, MBChB, MD; J.J.V. McMurray, MD, FRCP, FESC

From the Department of Public Health (K.M., S.C., S.S.), University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK; Information and Statistics Division (J.W.T.C., J.B., A.F., A.R.), Edinburgh, UK; Greater Glasgow Health Board (J.P.P.), Glasgow, UK; and the Department of Cardiology (J.J.V.M.), Western Infirmary, Glasgow, UK.

Correspondence to Professor John J.V. McMurray, CRI in Heart Failure, Wolfson Building, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK. E-mail j.mcmurray{at}bio.gla.ac.uk

Background—Contemporary survival in unselected patients with heart failure and the population impact of newer therapies have not been widely studied. Therefore, we have documented case-fatality rates (CFRs) over a recent 10-year period.

Methods and Results—In Scotland, all hospitalizations and deaths are captured on a single database. We have studied case fatality in all patients admitted with a principal diagnosis of heart failure from 1986 to 1995. A total of 66 547 patients (47% male) were studied. Median age was 72 years in men and 78 years in women. Crude CFRs at 30 days and at 1, 5, and 10 years were 19.9%, 44.5%, 76.5%, and 87.6%, respectively. Median survival was 1.47 years in men and 1.39 years in women (2.47 and 2.36 years, respectively, in those surviving 30 days). Age had a powerful effect on survival, and sex, comorbidity, and deprivation had modest effects. One-year CF was 24.2% in those aged <55 years and 58.1% in those aged >84 years. After adjustment, 30-day CFRs fell between 1986 and 1995, by 26% (95% CI 15 to 35, P<0.0001) in men and 17% (95% CI 6 to 26, P<0.0001) in women. Longer term CFRs fell by 18% (95% CI 13 to 24, P<0.0001) in men and 15% (95% CI 10 to 20, P<0.0001) in women. Median survival increased from 1.23 to 1.64 years.

Conclusions—Heart failure CF is much higher in the general population than in clinical trials, especially in the elderly. Although survival has increased significantly over the last decade, there is still much room for improvement.


Key Words: heart failure • prognosis • population • epidemiology • survival




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Randomized, Controlled Evaluation of Short- and Long-Term Benefits of Heart Failure Disease Management Within a Diverse Provider Network: The SPAN-CHF Trial
Circulation, September 14, 2004; 110(11): 1450 - 1455.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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ANN INTERN MEDHome page
F. A. McAlister, J. A. Ezekowitz, N. Wiebe, B. Rowe, C. Spooner, E. Crumley, L. Hartling, T. Klassen, and W. Abraham
Systematic Review: Cardiac Resynchronization in Patients with Symptomatic Heart Failure
Ann Intern Med, September 7, 2004; 141(5): 381 - 390.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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CirculationHome page
J. Critchley, J. Liu, D. Zhao, W. Wei, and S. Capewell
Explaining the Increase in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in Beijing Between 1984 and 1999
Circulation, September 7, 2004; 110(10): 1236 - 1244.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur Heart JHome page
F. Gustafsson and J. M. O. Arnold
Heart failure clinics and outpatient management: review of the evidence and call for quality assurance
Eur. Heart J., September 2, 2004; 25(18): 1596 - 1604.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur Heart JHome page
G. S. Bleumink, A. M. Knetsch, M. C.J.M. Sturkenboom, S. M.J.M. Straus, A. Hofman, J. W. Deckers, J. C.M. Witteman, and B. H.Ch. Stricker
Quantifying the heart failure epidemic: prevalence, incidence rate, lifetime risk and prognosis of heart failure: The Rotterdam Study
Eur. Heart J., September 2, 2004; 25(18): 1614 - 1619.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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J Am Coll CardiolHome page
F. A. McAlister, S. Stewart, S. Ferrua, and J. J.J.V. McMurray
Multidisciplinary strategies for the management of heart failure patients at high risk for admission: A systematic review of randomized trials
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., August 18, 2004; 44(4): 810 - 819.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur J Heart FailHome page
J. Muntwyler, A. Cohen-Solal, N. Freemantle, J. Eastaugh, J. G. Cleland, and F. Follath
Relation of sex, age and concomitant diseases to drug prescription for heart failure in primary care in Europe
Eur J Heart Fail, August 1, 2004; 6(5): 663 - 668.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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JAMAHome page
V. L. Roger, S. A. Weston, M. M. Redfield, J. P. Hellermann-Homan, J. Killian, B. P. Yawn, and S. J. Jacobsen
Trends in Heart Failure Incidence and Survival in a Community-Based Population
JAMA, July 21, 2004; 292(3): 344 - 350.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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BMJHome page
F A McAlister, N F Murphy, C R Simpson, S Stewart, K MacIntyre, M Kirkpatrick, J Chalmers, A Redpath, S Capewell, and J J V McMurray
Influence of socioeconomic deprivation on the primary care burden and treatment of patients with a diagnosis of heart failure in general practice in Scotland: population based study
BMJ, May 8, 2004; 328(7448): 1110.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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J Am Coll CardiolHome page
I. Gustafsson, B. Brendorp, M. Seibaek, H. Burchardt, P. Hildebrandt, L. Kober, C. Torp-Pedersen, and DIAMOND Study Group
Influence of diabetes and diabetes-gender interaction on the risk of death in patients hospitalized with congestive heart failure
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., March 3, 2004; 43(5): 771 - 777.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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CirculationHome page
F. A. McAlister, J. Ezekowitz, M. Tonelli, and P. W. Armstrong
Renal Insufficiency and Heart Failure: Prognostic and Therapeutic Implications From a Prospective Cohort Study
Circulation, March 2, 2004; 109(8): 1004 - 1009.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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HeartHome page
S Stewart, N Murphy, A Walker, A McGuire, and J J V McMurray
Cost of an emerging epidemic: an economic analysis of atrial fibrillation in the UK
Heart, March 1, 2004; 90(3): 286 - 292.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Journal of Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone SystemHome page
M. Tendera
The epidemiology of heart failure
Journal of Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone System, March 1, 2004; 5(1_suppl): S2 - S6.
[Abstract] [PDF]


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Journal of Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone SystemHome page
M. Metra, S. Nodari, and L. Dei Cas
Current guidelines in the pharmacological management of chronic heart failure
Journal of Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone System, March 1, 2004; 5(1_suppl): S11 - S16.
[Abstract] [PDF]


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Eur Heart JHome page
M. T. Kearney and M. Marber
Trends in incidence and prognosis of heart failure: You always pass failure on the way to success
Eur. Heart J., February 2, 2004; 25(4): 283 - 284.
[Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur Heart JHome page
M. Schaufelberger, K. Swedberg, M. Koster, M. Rosen, and A. Rosengren
Decreasing one-year mortality and hospitalization rates for heart failure in Sweden: Data from the Swedish Hospital Discharge Registry 1988 to 2000
Eur. Heart J., February 2, 2004; 25(4): 300 - 307.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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QJMHome page
F. Formiga, D. Chivite, N. Manito, V. Osma, S. Miravet, and R. Pujol
One-year follow-up of heart failure patients after their first admission
QJM, February 1, 2004; 97(2): 81 - 86.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur Heart JHome page
F. Gustafsson, C. Torp-Pedersen, H. Burchardt, P. Buch, M. Seibaek, E. Kjoller, I. Gustafsson, L. Kober, and for the DIAMOND Study group
Female sex is associated with a better long-term survival in patients hospitalized with congestive heart failure
Eur. Heart J., January 2, 2004; 25(2): 129 - 135.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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BMJHome page
G Lyratzopoulos and R F Heller
Prognosis for South Asian and white patients with heart failure in the United Kingdom: Deprivation gradient in mortality should not be dismissed as artefactual
BMJ, December 13, 2003; 327(7428): 1406 - 1406.
[Full Text]


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BMJHome page
I. Squire, J. Newton, and H. Blackledge
Prognosis for South Asian and white patients with heart failure in the United Kingdom: Authors' reply
BMJ, December 13, 2003; 327(7428): 1406 - 1406.
[Full Text]


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Hum Mol GenetHome page
P. Le Corvoisier, H.-Y. Park, K. M. Carlson, D. A. Marchuk, and H. A. Rockman
Multiple quantitative trait loci modify the heart failure phenotype in murine cardiomyopathy
Hum. Mol. Genet., December 1, 2003; 12(23): 3097 - 3107.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur J Heart FailHome page
E. C. Vourvouri, A. F.L. Schinkel, J. R.T.C. Roelandt, F. Boomsma, G. Sianos, M. Bountioukos, F. B. Sozzi, V. Rizzello, J. J. Bax, H. I. Karvounis, et al.
Screening for left ventricular dysfunction using a hand-carried cardiac ultrasound device
Eur J Heart Fail, December 1, 2003; 5(6): 767 - 774.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur J Heart FailHome page
L. L. Ng, I. Loke, J. E. Davies, K. Khunti, M. Stone, K. R. Abrams, D. T. Chin, and I. B. Squire
Identification of previously undiagnosed left ventricular systolic dysfunction: community screening using natriuretic peptides and electrocardiography
Eur J Heart Fail, December 1, 2003; 5(6): 775 - 782.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur J Heart FailHome page
K. Muller, G. Gamba, F. Jaquet, and B. Hess
Torasemide vs. furosemide in primary care patients with chronic heart failure NYHA II to IV--efficacy and quality of life
Eur J Heart Fail, December 1, 2003; 5(6): 793 - 801.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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JAMAHome page
D. S. Lee, P. C. Austin, J. L. Rouleau, P. P. Liu, D. Naimark, and J. V. Tu
Predicting Mortality Among Patients Hospitalized for Heart Failure: Derivation and Validation of a Clinical Model
JAMA, November 19, 2003; 290(19): 2581 - 2587.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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BMJHome page
H. M Blackledge, J. Newton, and I. B Squire
Prognosis for South Asian and white patients newly admitted to hospital with heart failure in the United Kingdom: historical cohort study
BMJ, September 6, 2003; 327(7414): 526 - 531.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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ChestHome page
C. Schalcher, H. Rickli, M. Brehm, D. Weilenmann, E. Oechslin, W. Kiowski, and H. P. Brunner-La Rocca
Prolonged Oxygen Uptake Kinetics During Low-Intensity Exercise Are Related to Poor Prognosis in Patients With Mild-to-Moderate Congestive Heart Failure
Chest, August 1, 2003; 124(2): 580 - 586.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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HeartHome page
T P Ng and M Niti
Trends and ethnic differences in hospital admissions and mortality for congestive heart failure in the elderly in Singapore, 1991 to 1998
Heart, August 1, 2003; 89(8): 865 - 870.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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Eur J Heart FailHome page
R. J. O'Brien, I. B. Squire, B. Demme, J. E. Davies, and L. L. Ng
Pre-discharge, but not admission, levels of NT-proBNP predict adverse prognosis following acute LVF
Eur J Heart Fail, August 1, 2003; 5(4): 499 - 506.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]